Preseason Driver Rankings: #10 Greg Biffle

02/24/2012 By Leave a Comment

Greg Biffle
No. 16 3M Ford
Team: Roush Fenway Racing
Crew Chief: Matt Puccia

2011 Stats
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 3
Top-10s: 10
Poles: 3
DNF: 2
Average Start: 15.0
Average Finish: 16.8
Races Led: 15
Laps Led: 351
% Laps Completed: 98.3%
Points Finish: 16th

2011 in a Nutshell
Looking back, I guess you could say the early part of Greg Biffle’s 2011 season was a microcosm for his year as a whole. Fast cars, several races where he should have finished better and perhaps won, but in the end, nothing but disappointing results to round out the year. Eventually as the season wore on, and the frustration continued to mount, it was clear a change was needed with the 16 team. That change came in July when crew chief Greg Erwin was reassigned and Matt Puccia was named as his replacement. Although the middling performances continued and Biffle missed the Chase for the first time in four years, there were some glimmers of hope near the end of the year that he and Puccia were close to returning the No. 16 Ford to the once lofty heights the team experienced annually.

Reasons to Believe
16 Sprint Cup victories and four appearances in the Chase speak volumes about Biffle’s ability behind the wheel … Unlike teammate Matt Kenseth, Biffle doesn’t have any sponsorship concerns … Last year the fleet of Roush Fords were as fast as any cars on the track and there is no reason to think that’s going to change this year … His best tracks are of the intermediate variety which bode well for him, as nearly half the schedule consists of one-and-a-half- to two-mile ovals … A constant near the front of the field and typically leads a lot of laps … Tends to win in bunches … A slimmed down version of Roush Fenway Racing should strengthen an organization which often seemed stretched beyond its means … When not expected to do much, Biffle often performs his best work.

Reasons to Doubt
Biffle often drives harder than he needs to and the result is a lot of mechanical problems and a car that is used up by the last 50 laps … He has gone winless two of the last three years … In 2011, his pit crew was the very definition of horrific and continually cost him numerous positions on the track as well as a potential victory at Las Vegas … Matt Puccia is winless as a Cup crew chief … In the last four seasons, Biffle’s average finish has continually gotten worse and worse … His three top-five finishes last year were his lowest total since his rookie year … He is still looking for his first victory on a short track in 55 starts.

Area of Strength: Intermediate Tracks
Of Greg Biffle’s 16 Sprint Cup victories, nine have come on an oval that can be classified as an intermediate track, which makes sense considering the team Biffle drives for, Roush Fenway Racing, has always buttered its bread one mile-and-a-half- to two-mile tracks. Once again in 2012, this should be an area where Biffle excels in and it would be of no surprise if he found himself celebrating win number 17 early in the season at either Las Vegas of Fontana.

Area of Weakness: Short tracks
It’s not that Greg Biffle is bad on all three short tracks. He actually runs quite well at Bristol, where he’s posted 11 top-10s in 18 starts, and has come close to victory on a couple of occasions. But the fact he hasn’t yet won a race on a track less than mile does give cause for concern. Also troublesome is his track-record at Martinsville, where he has just two top-10s and an average finish of 22.4.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
A return to the norm would be ideal for Greg Biffle in 2012. And the norm includes two victories, a return to the Chase, and if everything goes right, once again being in contention for the Sprint Cup as he’s done in years past.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
When the speed is there, the consistency isn’t. When the consistency is there, the speed is absent. And all 2012 ends up being is a repeat of ’11, when Biffle was shutout of the winner’s circle and missed the Chase while his two teammates battled for the championship.

In Their Words
“Last year, we had the crappiest luck that I’ve ever seen in my life. Ever. Luck, coincidence, whatever it was, it just happened. It was like we couldn’t do anything right.”
–Greg Biffle

Predicted Number of Wins: 3

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
Greg Biffle is too good of a driver and he’s driving for too good of a team not to be in the Chase for a second consecutive year. Now does that mean he’s going to contend for the championship like his two teammates, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth, did a year ago? We’ll see. It’s possible, as he’s shown in the past. But at the very least, a Chase appearance should be in the cards for Biffle in 2012.

Filed Under: 2012, Biffle, NASCAR, Preseason Rankings, Sub-Feature

Preseason Driver Rankings: #11 Brad Keselowski

02/24/2012 By Leave a Comment

Brad Keselowski
No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge
Team: Penske Racing
Crew Chief: Paul Wolfe

2011 Stats
Wins: 3
Top-5s: 10
Top-10s: 14
Poles: 1
DNF: 1
Average Start: 14.4
Average Finish: 14.8
Races Led: 20
Laps Led: 298
% Laps Completed: 98.7%
Points Finish: 5th

2011 in a Nutshell
Other drivers may have won more races and led more laps, but few left a greater impression on the 2011 season than Brad Keselowski. From a surprising, out of nowhere win at Kansas, to an improbable victory at Pocono just days removed from breaking his ankle in a testing session, to a dominant win at Bristol that ensured him a spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, to the way he handled the increased glare of the media spotlight with aplomb, last season represented a breakout year for the Penske Racing driver in every way possible.

Reasons to Believe
With the departure of Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski is now the lead driver at Penske Racing and it’s a role he seems to be relishing … As evident by their 2010 Nationwide Series championship and their Cup success last year, Keselowski and crew chief Paul Wolfe work wonderfully together … With a contract extension for both himself, Paul Wolfe and sponsor Miller Lite, worrying about job security is a nonissue for everybody involved … The team is fully capable of winning on any type of track, and that includes road courses … Last year put to bed any doubt whether Keselowski could be successful at the Cup level … He has done a nice job restoring his reputation in the garage and the result is he’s no longer bullied on the track like he once was … Despite my initial doubts, being the only factory supported Dodge team has actually been a big benefit to Penske Racing … Keselowski has a good relationship with new stablemate AJ Allmendinger along with a renewed sense of enthusiasm among everyone at Team Penske.

Reasons to Doubt
One great season doesn’t make a career and the pressure to duplicate what he did last year will be immense … His penchant for starting the year slowly and putting he and his team in a pretty big hole is a bit bothersome …Although changes were made in the offseason, the pit crew for the Bleu Deuce is still a question mark … He lost his mojo and faded a bit in the Chase … Say what you want about Kurt Busch, but the reality is Keselowski no longer has a former Cup champion as a teammate to lean on … He needs to be more consistent, and on days when he’s just average, needs to find a way to come away with a top-10 … It wouldn’t be a bad thing if he improved his average starting position just a bit … Considering they both have dates in the Chase, Keselowski has to pick up his game at Texas and Phoenix if he wants to be viewed as a serious title contender.

Area of Strength: Relationship with his crew chief
In the two seasons they’ve worked together, one in Nationwide and one in Cup, Brad Keselowski and Paul Wolfe have quickly established themselves as a duo to be reckoned with. The pair rolled to the 2010 Nationwide championship, and after a rough initial full season in Cup, Roger Penske wisely promoted Wolfe to head the fledgling Miller Lite team before the beginning of last year. Although they struggled initially, it wasn’t long before Wolfe’s connection with his driver began making an impact. Now entering year three of working together, there’s little reason to think this twosome won’t continue to be a force on the track.

Area of Weakness: Managing expectations
This isn’t so much an area of weakness, but more so an area of concern. No longer will this team be able to surprise people. From the moment they unload in Daytona, the No. 2 team will have a bull’s-eye on its back and be expected to be a contender. How they deal with that pressure will go a very long way in dictating what kind of season Brad Keselowski will have in 2012.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
2011 was nothing more than an appetizer for what is to come. And what’s to come in ’12 is four or more victories and serious push by Keselowski at winning his first Cup title.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
Keselowski can’t handle the pressure of being the “man’ at Penske Racing, he and his team succumb to the weight of the lofty expectations placed on its shoulders, and in turn, go winless and don’t come anywhere close to making the Chase. By the end of the year, the word ‘fluke’ gets tossed around whenever Keselowski’s name is mentioned.

In Their Words
“We might not fire out of the gate all that strong, but we always hit our stride in summer. It’s just a matter of closing the deal.”
–Brad Keselowski

Predicted Number of Wins: 1

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
Was last year a precursor of things to come or was it a circumstance merely a team who used fuel mileage to win at Kansas and track position and strategy to win at Pocono and Bristol? Personally, I believe Brad Keselowski is the real deal. However, that doesn’t mean I think he’s going to duplicate what he did in 2011. That said, I still think he’s goes to Victory Lane more than once and does sneak into the Chase. But all that talk of him being a darkhorse title contender proves to be just that, talk.

Filed Under: 2012, Keselowski, NASCAR, Preseason Rankings, Sub-Feature

Preseason Driver Rankings: #12 Ryan Newman

02/23/2012 By Leave a Comment

Ryan Newman
No. 39 U.S. Army/Haas Automation/Quicken Loans/Tornadoes Chevy
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
Crew Chief: Tony Gibson

2011 Stats
Wins: 1
Top-5s: 9
Top-10s: 17
Poles: 3
DNF: 0
Average Start: 12.2
Average Finish: 14.0
Races Led: 18
Laps Led: 403
% Laps Completed: 99.3%
Points Finish: 9th

2011 in a Nutshell
Typically a slow starter, Ryan Newman jumped out of the gate in 2011 with four top-10s in the first five races and found himself second in points after a fifth-place finish at Auto Club Speedway. Although he wouldn’t be able to maintain that pace throughout the regular season, he never fell outside the top-10 in the standings, picked up a victory at New Hampshire and easily made the Chase for the Sprint Cup. However, when the playoffs started the consistency which Newman demonstrated through the first 26 races vanished and he ended the year a rather mundane ninth in the final championship order.

Reasons to Believe
He has the same engines and cars as the defending Sprint Cup champion … Is a terrific qualifier … With the exception of maybe Infineon, there’s not a track on the schedule where Newman doesn’t run well … Takes care of his equipment and completed the third-most miles in 2011 … Had as many top-fives and only two fewer top-10s than Tony Stewart …Led an impressive 403 laps … He and crew chief Tony Gibson work well with one another … Newman has had tremendous success at both Dover and New Hampshire, two of the first three tracks in the Chase.

Reasons to Doubt
Newman has just two wins in three years with Stewart-Haas Racing and has only won multiple races in a season twice in his career … Has this team hit its ceiling? … Why was Tony Stewart able to win five times while Newman did so only once? … His disappearing act in the Chase is worrisome … The arrival of Danica Patrick creates an unnecessary distraction for a team who likes to fly under the radar … Although he’s had success previously at Texas and Charlotte, he needs to be better at both, particularly because each has a date in the Chase … The team didn’t respond to adversity.

Area of Strength: Qualifying
At a time where there are more competitive teams on the track than any other time in history, the ability to habitually start up near the front is a significant advantage. With 49 career poles, the seventh-most in the modern-era, being fast on Pole Day is far and away Ryan Newman’s greatest strength.

Area of Weakness: Daytona and Talladega
With an average finish of 22.0 at Daytona and 21.7 at Talladega, NASCAR’s twin restrictor-plate tracks represent Ryan Newman’s two worst circuits on the Sprint Cup schedule. That in part probably explains why the 2008 Daytona 500 champion has made no secret his disdain for plate racing. In any case, he needs to find a way to finish better at both, especially with Talladega having a race in the Chase, if he is to seriously put together a bona fide championship effort.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
Tony Stewart’s triumphant roll to the title kicks up the entire Stewart-Haas Racing team to another level which in turn propels Ryan Newman to multiple wins, another Chase appearance and serious run at his first series crown.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
The addition of a third car stretches SHR’s resources to its breaking point and in its wake Ryan Newman can’t duplicate the consistency he had last year and misses out on the Chase for the fifth time in seven seasons.

In Their Words
“We have had some opportunities that have gotten away from us. I won’t say we’ve given races away but we should have been in victory lane more often than we have been. Those are the things we need to fix as well. Those things go hand in hand. When you can’t fix those things and you know that you should and you’re capable and haven’t fixed those things that makes it really tough to swallow.”
–Ryan Newman

Predicted Number of Wins: 0

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
Ryan Newman is what he is as a driver. Some years he’ll look like a fringe title contender, other years you won’t even know he’s on the track. What you get from year to year is a mystery unto itself.

Filed Under: 2012, NASCAR, Newman, Preseason Rankings, Sub-Feature

Preseason Driver Rankings: #13 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

02/23/2012 By Leave a Comment

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
No. 88 Army National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew Chevy
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Crew Chief: Steve Letarte

2011 Stats
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 4
Top-10s: 12
Poles: 1
DNF: 2
Average Start: 19.6
Average Finish: 14.5
Races Led: 9
Laps Led: 52
% Laps Completed: 99.2%
Points Finish: 7th

2011 in a Nutshell
After two subpar seasons that left him and others questioning his abilities, Dale Earnhardt Jr., working with new crew chief Steve Letarte, bounced back in 2011 by consistently sitting top-10 in points for a majority of the year and ultimately returning to the Chase for the first time since 2008. But not everything went according to plan. For the third straight year, Earnhardt went winless and when the Chase did start, he was a virtual nonfactor after opening the playoffs with a third-place run at Chicagoland.

Reasons to Believe
Hendrick Motorsports isn’t lacking in the resources or sponsorship dollars department … Despite being winless on plate tracks since 2004, Earnhardt is still as good as they come at both Daytona and Talladega … Steve Letarte is exactly the kind of crew chief Earnhardt needs as he is calm and reassuring on the radio and doesn’t resort to bickering with a driver who at times can be easily rattled … Earnhardt more frequently has his car handling at its best at the end of races unlike in years past when he regularly faded late … He doesn’t abuse his equipment … From 2010 to ’11 he jumped 14 spots in the standings and saw his average finishing position improve from 18.6 to 14.5 … Earnhardt also had 29 lead lap finishes, good for fifth-best.

Reasons to Doubt
His lack of victories in the last seven years is glaring … The addition of Kasey Kahne with Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon already in the fold, makes one wonder where Earnhardt sits on the Hendrick totem pole … He is still prone to suffering through long stretches where he struggles just to finish somewhere in the top-15 … Have I mentioned he’s in the midst of a 129-race winless streak? … Road course racing is still a challenge … Two tracks, Richmond and Bristol, where he used to shine are no longer strengths … He is a poor qualifier … Earnhardt paced the field for a career-low 52 laps last year.

Area of Strength: Talladega
He may not have won in Talladega for almost eight years, but no matter what car he may be driving or rules package NASCAR has in place, Dale Earnhardt Jr. knows the fast way around a track he’s won on seven-times prior. If Earnhardt is going to snap his long losing streak, there’s no more likely place for it to happen than Talladega.

Area of Weakness: Winning
A fine season in 2011 was again hampered by the one thing Earnhardt has continually failed to do more than any other – win. Until he returns to Victory Lane, not winning will be an ever-growing monkey on his back that will overshadow anything he may do on the racetrack, no matter how good it may be.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
In their second year working together, the Earnhardt-Letarte combo really starts to take effect. A win early in the year restores Earnhardt’s sagging confidence and the resulting impact sees him becoming a regular visitor to Victory Lane. When the Chase rolls around, NASCAR’s favorite driver not only easily qualifies; he becomes a player and ends the year somewhere in the top-five in the final standings.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
The winless streak continues, the consistency which marked his season a year ago disappears and Earnhardt is again struggling on an every week basis.

In Their Words
“The offseason has been good. I’ve been able to relax a lot, and I’ve been looking forward to getting in the car. I really wasn’t ready to get out of the car, and I’ve been asking Steve when we were going to test, when we’re going to go to the racetrack just to be doing something instead of sitting around at home. We plan to test a little bit more than we did last year before the season starts, which I think will be good for our team. It’s been good, though. I’ve been just enjoying the time off and really getting charged up and ready for the year to start.”
–Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Predicted Number of Wins: 1

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
It’s easy to think Earnhardt will continue to blossom working with Steve Letarte. Then again, you look at the 88 team’s inability to win and the frequency in which they fall off the radar, and there’s no way you can think making the Chase is a foregone conclusion. There are too many teams who finished behind this one last year who have strengthened themselves over the offseason, while conversely, accomplishing what they did in 2011 seems to be the ceiling of what the 88 team can do.

Filed Under: 2012, Earnhardt Jr., NASCAR, Preseason Rankings, Sub-Feature

Preseason Driver Rankings: #14 AJ Allmendinger

02/23/2012 By Leave a Comment

AJ Allmendinger
No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge
Team: Penske Racing
Crew Chief: Todd Gordon

2011 Stats
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 1
Top-10s: 10
Poles: 0
DNF: 1
Average Start: 14.9
Average Finish: 16.1
Races Led: 6
Laps Led: 51
% Laps Completed: 97.5%
Points Finish: 15th

2011 in a Nutshell
A quiet, steady season would be the best description of the kind of year AJ Allmendinger put together in 2011. Although he may not have won a race he more often than not flashed the talent that showed this former open-wheel has what it takes to compete in NASCAR, collecting 10 top-10s and finishing a very respectable 15th in the final championship rundown. And after years of driving for underfunded teams with inferior equipment, Allmendinger was rewarded for his patience and growth as a stock car driver when Roger Penske named him as Kurt Busch’s replacement behind the wheel of the No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge.

Reasons to Believe
Allmendinger is driving for a team which last year won two races and comfortably made the Chase … He has improved his points finish and average finishing position every year he’s been in Cup … He’s never driven for a team the caliber of Penske Racing … The team is on the cusp of breaking through and being the sport’s next superstar … Will be motivated to show he deserves this ride fulltime … ‘Dinger’s enthusiasm and positive attitude for a team which a year ago often had the feeling of an abused puppy … Runs great Dover and has a knack for getting around short ovals like Phoenix and Richmond.

Reasons to Doubt
He has to yet win a NASCAR points race of any kind … The 22 team, which won twice last year and made the Chase, did so with a driver and crew chief who are no longer with the team … Questions abound whether ‘Dinger can win and win consistently at the Sprint Cup level … It’s not outlandish to think this coming season Brad Keselowksi will be getting the bulk of the attention from Team Penske … Crew chief Todd Gordon has no experience guiding a Sprint Cup team … Allmendinger only racked up one top-five a year ago and has a total of only four finishes in his career of fifth or better … He should be better on the road courses than he is … He has a tendency to overdrive and not save his stuff for the end.

Area of Strength: Dover
Even without winning, AJ Allmendinger has figured out a way to slay Miles The Monster. In his last three trips to Dover, ‘Dinger has been among the fastest cars on the track, both in practice and in the race. If it weren’t an issue on pit road two years ago, the former IndyCar pilot would already have scored that elusive first Sprint Cup victory.

Area of Weakness: Lack of wins
Maybe it’s because he’s never been with a team that could supply him with the right equipment, or maybe it’s because he simply doesn’t possess the talent needed to win, either way the fact is entering his sixth full season AJ Allmendinger is still 0-152 in Sprint Cup. Until proven otherwise, this is without question a big area of weakness.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
The transition to Penske Racing is as seamless as seamless can be. AJ Allmendinger quickly answers any questions there may have been about whether he was the right choice to replace Kurt Busch by scoring his first Cup win early in the year, and then follows it up with victory somewhere along the way. With the cherry on top of the sundae being he makes his inaugural appearance in the Chase.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
AJ Allmendinger is a complete flop; to the point Penske Racing has no choice but to pull the plug before the season is out.

In Their Words
“It has been an amazing ride to get to this point. I’ve worked hard for five years and went through a lot of ups and downs to get to this point. Right now, this is my time to have a chance at it. My goal is to go out there and try to win races, make the Chase and contend for the championship. Anything less than that would be really disappointing.”
–AJ Allmendinger

Predicted Number of Wins: 1

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
One of two things is going to happen with AJ Allmendinger this season. Either he adjusts to life with a powerhouse team and produces the appropriate results which demonstrates he’s worthy of a long-term contract. Or, he stumbles badly, showing he’s in over his head in NASCAR and that his future as a driver involves wheeling a car with open wheels. There is no in-between.

Filed Under: 2012, Allmendinger, NASCAR, Preseason Rankings, Sub-Feature

Preseason Driver Rankings: #15 Jeff Burton

02/22/2012 By Leave a Comment

Jeff Burton
No. 31 Caterpillar/General Mills/BB&T Chevy
Team: Richard Childress Racing
Crew Chief: Drew Blickensderfer

2011 Stats
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 2
Top-10s: 5
Poles: 0
DNF: 3
Average Start: 20.7
Average Finish: 18.3
Races Led: 9
Laps Led: 94
% Laps Completed: 98.2%
Points Finish: 20th

2011 in a Nutshell
When it’s not until the 22nd race of the year that you post your first top-10, you know your season is going to be three different kinds of ugly. Despite a late-season push which included top-10 finishes in four of the last five races, that’s how Jeff Burton’s year went in 2011. A year removed from competing in the Chase, Burton endured three engine failures, suffered through seven finishes of 25th or worse and was the only Richard Childress Racing driver not to score a victory. Like I said, ugly.

Reasons to Believe
He is a veteran driver and has the right temperament and moxie to bounce-back from a disappointing season … As evidence by having three of his four cars taste victory, Richard Childress knows a thing or two about building fast racecars … Three engine failures in one season is highly unusual for an RCR team and likely won’t happen again in 2012 … It’s borderline impossible to again be as snake-bitten as Jeff Burton was last year … He is sneaky good on the plate tracks and his smooth style plays well on the cookie-cutters … Despite being on the wrong side of 40, there’s little evidence Burton can’t get it done behind the wheel … He ended the year strong with a runner-up finish at Talladega and three top-10 finishes in the last five races … New crew chief Drew Blickensderfer is highly regarded, comes over from Roush Fenway Racing and brings with him the secrets which made Jack Roush’s Fords so quick.

Reasons to Doubt
Boyer hasn’t won a race in three seasons … Merely five top-10s in 36 races is a troublesome statistic and leads one to question whether Burton, at the age of 44, is on the downside of his career … He is a terrible qualifier … Doesn’t run up front and lead laps with the same frequency as he used to … Luke Lambert, Burton’s crew chief who he seemed to click with late last year, has been replaced … As highly regarded as Blickensderfer may be, he’s never led a team into the Chase … Optimism and determination will only carry him so far … Call it bad luck, poor timing or whatever, Burton has had a propensity to throw away potential victories.

Area of Strength: Feedback
There was a time when Jeff Burton was a Tour de Force at New Hampshire Motor Speedway or Phoenix International Raceway. Those times however have come and gone, and now the veteran’s greatest strength lays in his ability to communicate with his crew and call for adjustments during the course of a race.

Area of Weakness: Finding Victory Lane
Dale Earnhardt Jr. may get the bulk of the headlines, but Jeff Burton is currently immersed in a winless streak almost as long. The last time Burton took the checkered flag was October, 2008 at Charlotte, a span of 113 races. Now, with a greater emphasis placed on winning than ever before, the best, and to some degree the easiest, way for Burton to earn an invite to the Chase is to find his way back to the Winner’s Circle.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
The three-year winless streak gets snapped, he qualifies for the Chase with minimal effort, and like he did in 2008, makes a spirited run at winning at his first championship before falling just short.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
A carbon copy of 2011 with the caveat that Richard Childress Racing sees the writing on the wall and the phasing out of Jeff Burton at RCR begins. Accompanied with persistent rumors Childress’s grandson, Austin Dillon, will be replacing Burton behind the wheel of the No. 31 Chevy at the end of the year

In Their Words
“I’m not here to extend my career. I’m here to win a championship.”
–Jeff Burton

Predicted Number of Wins: 0

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
With fast cars underneath, a solid crew chief sitting on top of his pit box, and determination to atone for last year and not having won for the last three years, this is Jeff Burton’s last chance at having one more moment in the sun.

Filed Under: 2012, Burton, NASCAR, Preseason Rankings, Sub-Feature

Preseason Driver Rankings: #16 Clint Bowyer

02/22/2012 By Leave a Comment

Clint Bowyer
No. 15 5-Hour Energy Drink Toyota
Team: Michael Waltrip Racing
Crew Chief: Brian Pattie

2011 Stats
Wins: 1
Top-5s: 4
Top-10s: 16
Poles: 0
DNF: 1
Average Start: 16.4
Average Finish: 15.5
Races Led: 16
Laps Led: 345
% Laps Completed: 98.0%
Points Finish: 13th

2011 in a Nutshell
Entering into the 2011 season Clint Bowyer knew his pending free agency could eventually become a distraction. Despite vowing not to let his contract negotiations affect his on-track performance, that is exactly what happened as the year moved along. Although Bowyer did win a race, the off-track stuff, and he ultimately signing with Michael Waltrip Racing, became too much and he ended up missing the Chase.

Reasons to Believe
He is a proven and consistent winner, which is something Michael Waltrip Racing has never had before … Crew chief Brian Pattie knows how to get the most out of his drivers … He has made the Chase three of the last five years … Bowyer is committed to taking MWR to the next level … Tends to lead a lot of laps … He is capable of stretches of dominance … The addition of Scott Miller as competition director should make a huge difference on the track and behind the scenes. Miller also has familiarity with Bowyer, as the two worked together at Richard Childress Racing … Being out of the shadow casted by former teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton could be the lynchpin Bowyer needs to take his career to the next level … An alliance between Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing should result in stronger and more reliable engines for MWR.

Reasons to Doubt
Boyer is distracted too easily…He questions whether he’s committed to doing all the necessary things required of a championship-level driver … New team with a new crew chief means it could be awhile before Bowyer becomes comfortable with his new surroundings … Michael Waltrip Racing has always had high expectations and not once have they come close to meeting them … Brian Pattie’s pit strategy can sometimes be, shall we say, interesting … Wasn’t always the best teammate when he was at RCR … Missed the Chase two of the last three years … He crashed out of four races last year.

Area of Strength: New Hampshire
Along with Talladega, New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the only other circuit on the schedule where Clint Bowyer has multiple victories. But since he’s no longer with Richard Childress Racing, it’s hard to gauge how well Bowyer will continue to run on the series’ biggest track. Therefore it’s the flat one-mile oval that gets the nod as his area of strength.

Area of Weakness: Michael Waltrip Racing
Since its inception, no team has continually underachieved like Michael Waltrip Racing. Despite talented drivers, competent crew chiefs and smart decision makers, the organization has never quite figured out how to put all the pieces together to field cars that win races on a regular basis and contend for a spot in NASCAR’s postseason. Although Clint Bowyer is one of the most talented drivers to ever sit in one of its Toyotas, until MWR can show they’re up to the task of consistently fielding race-winning equipment, there will be a low ceiling on what to expect out of Bowyer going forward.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
Clint Bowyer and Brian Pattie quickly get on the same page and as the season moves along, become a more formidable team with each passing week. They also find Victory Lane at least once, maybe twice, and fairly comfortably, race their way into the Chase.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
Michael Waltrip Racing again isn’t up to the challenge of fielding a consistently competitive team and the result has Clint Bowyer in his first season with the team, falling flat on his face and regretting his decision to leave RCR.

In Their Words
“Obviously, I’ve been with Richard [Childress Racing] since my very first start into NASCAR so it’s a big change. It’s another chapter in my life, my career — a fresh start, a new beginning — new way to prove myself all over again. The challenge is there and it’s fun. I’m nervous all over again and worried about things. A lot of times, I perform my best in the early stages of my career when I didn’t know what I was doing and I was nervous about it. Usually, somehow, some way I got some of the best results I’ve ever had. I see a lot of good things, a lot of positive things and a good direction that they are headed at MWR, TRD [Toyota Racing Development]. There are a lot of good things here and I think they’re all coming together at the right time. Timing in anything you do in life is so important, as it was when I got my start and my opportunity with Richard. This is a new opportunity to go out and to make things happen for myself again.”
–Clint Bowyer

Predicted Number of Wins: 0

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
Although Clint Bowyer is a likeable guy with a lot of speed in his right foot, there are serious questions about whether his new team is competent enough to challenge the Roush, Gibbs, Hendrick, Penske and Childress cars for wins every week. Personally, I get the feeling this team is either going to be really good or really bad with no middle ground whatsoever.

Filed Under: 2012, Bowyer, NASCAR, Preseason Rankings, Sub-Feature

Preseason Driver Rankings: #17 Marcos Ambrose

02/16/2012 By Leave a Comment

Marcos Ambrose
No. 9 Stanley Tools Ford
Team: Richard Petty Motorsports
Crew Chief: Todd Parrott

2011 Stats
Wins: 1
Top-5s: 5
Top-10s: 12
Poles: 0
DNF: 1
Average Start: 17.5
Average Finish: 18.3
Races Led: 7
Laps Led: 49
% Laps Completed: 95.9%
Points Finish: 19th

2011 in a Nutshell
In his first season driving for Richard Petty Motorsports, Marcos Ambrose turned in what far and away can be classified as his best season in NASCAR. Topped by a memorable victory at Watkins Glen, the affable and ever-popular Aussie collected five top-five and 12 top-10 finishes and came home a respectable 19th in the yearend standings.

Reasons to Believe
He is phenomenal on the series’ two road courses, and barring a mechanical failure, is a surefire lock for a top-five finish at Infineon and Watkins Glen … Thanks to Ford’s horsepower and improved cars, courtesy of Roush Fenway, this team performed remarkably well last year on the intermediate tracks … Unlike his teammate in the 43 car, Aric Almirola, sponsorship isn’t a concern for the 9 team … Five finishes inside the top-11 in the year’s final nine races gave this team a shot in the arm heading into the offseason … Had as many, if not more top-fives as Denny Hamlin and Dale Earnhardt Jr., both of whom made the Chase … Crew chief Todd Parrot may not have as good a grasp on the engineering side of things as the majority of newer crew chiefs in the garage, but what he does have is a keen understanding of how to make a car faster and what adjustments to make mid-race. He also knows how to motivate a driver like few can.

Reasons to Doubt
Ambrose’s seasons seems to hang on how he does in just two races. If he can win one or both, his season has a chance to be considered successful. If not, he’s more likely to get lost in the shuffle … Only 22 times in 2011 did Ambrose finish on the lead lap … He must run up front more and he must lead more than the 49 laps he led a year ago … Could make things easier for himself on raceday by qualifying better … Maybe due to his abrasive personality, Todd Parrott doesn’t often stick with one team too long … With the exception of Bristol, which he seems to have the hang of, short tracks continue to befuddle Ambrose.

Area of Strength: Turing left and right
Every time the circuit visits the Wine Country of Northern California or upstate New York, not only is Marcos Ambrose’s name on the short list of favorites, he is the favorite. I guess that’s to be expected when in eight combined starts at Infineon and Watkins Glen he has finished worse than sixth only once, and that was because of a faulty transmission.

Area of Weakness: The Tricky Triangle
With its three distinct and unique corners, Pocono Raceway has a reputation for driving like a road course. Which means this should be a place where the Aussie excels, considering his prowess on the road courses. Instead, it’s a place where he’s struggled, with finishes of 20th, 34th, 39th, 30th and 34th in his last five starts on the 2.5-mile track.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
Enough consistency to keep him in the top-20 in points along with a road course sweep is enough for Marcos Ambrose to qualify for the Chase via a wildcard berth.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
Mechanical gremlins prevent Ambrose from scoring wins at either/both Infineon and Watkins Glen and he comes as close to making the Chase as you and I.

In Their Words
“The biggest asset to our team is that we haven’t changed, we’ve kept the foundation the same and we will be able to build off of that this year. We’ve built a really good relationship over the last year. We know what we need to do this year, we need to be better than 2011, and I think we are going to do that.”
–Marcos Ambrose

Predicted Number of Wins: 1

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
Call me silly or worse if you so choose, but I think Marcos Ambrose is going to surprise people in 2012. He’s superb on the road courses, solid enough on the cookie-cutter tracks and has had success on the short tracks, particularly Bristol where’s he’s twice finished in the top-10. Add it all together and he has a very realistic chance of racing for the championship come September. Even if he struggles with consistency this year, a road course sweep might be enough to snag him a Chase wildcard.

Filed Under: 2012, Ambrose, NASCAR, Preseason Rankings, Sub-Feature

Preseason Driver Rankings: #18 Juan Pablo Montoya

02/16/2012 By Leave a Comment

Juan Pablo Montoya
No. 42 Target Chevy
Team: Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing
Crew Chief: Chris Heroy

2011 Stats
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 2
Top-10s: 8
Poles: 2
DNF: 3
Average Start: 18.2
Average Finish: 18.5
Races Led: 15
Laps Led: 125
% Laps Completed: 99.5%
Points Finish: 21st

2011 in a Nutshell
One year removed from winning his second Cup race and two years removed from surprisingly making the Chase, everything in 2011 was supposed to come together for Juan Pablo Montoya. But a lack of speed, little patience and myriad of other issues including a midseason crew chief swap, the former Indy 500 endured a dismal and frustrating season that left him both winless and out of the Chase.

Reasons to Believe
Montoya has won in every discipline he’s ever competed in … New crew chief Chris Heroy comes over from Hendrick Motorsports highly regarded and with a background in engineering, an area EGR has severely lacking in … An organizational overhaul is exactly what EGR needed … Unlike many other former open-wheel drivers who’ve made the transition to NASCAR, Montoya has adapted well to the nuances of driving a stock car … Though he has yet to pickup a checkered flag on an oval, Montoya has been close numerous times and runs competitively on intermediate tracks … Confidence is never an issue.

Reasons to Doubt
He is a bully on the track and despite his world-class credentials doesn’t have the respect of the guys he races against every week … Commitment can sometimes be in question … He has a fiery personality who often lets his emotions get the best of him … Communication between driver and team has been noticeably lacking … Despite said numerous close calls, the fact is he’s still looking for his first victory on an oval … Chris Heroy has no experience being a Sprint Cup crew chief and working with a driver who possesses the temperament that Montoya does, will be unlike anything Heroy has ever experienced before … Frequently loses his patience, forgetting that Cup races are typically 300-500-mile affairs … Limped to the finish line a year ago with only one top-10 in the final 14 races.

Area of Strength: Job security
The relationship between Chip Ganassi and Juan Pablo Montoya is as strong as any owner-driver in the garage. As result, it was no surprise when Ganassi rewarded his driver last season with a new long-term contract, despite results which thus far have been tepid. Regardless, everyone at EGR knows Montoya isn’t going anywhere and it’s in everyone’s best interest to placate the driver and find a way to make things work at the racetrack.

Area of Weakness: Playing well with others
If you were to take a blind survey and ask drivers who they disliked the most, it’s guaranteed Juan Pablo Montoya’s name would be at or near the top of everyone’s list. On the track, the seven-time winner in F1 has no issues manhandling his way through someone. But when a fellow driver uses their bumper on the 42 Target car, he acts like some kind of crime against humanity has been committed and often goes out of his way to seek vengeance, even if it can be a detriment to his own machine. Like it or not, success at NASCAR’s highest-level requires patience and making as few enemies on the track as possible. A lesson Montoya would be best-served to learn if he wants any measure of sustained success.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
A combination of 2009 and ’10 which sees Juan Pablo Montoya win a race, qualify for the Chase and put together a run at his first Sprint Cup championship.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
Montoya continues to make enemies on the track, the bottom completely falls out at Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing and at the end of the year, Montoya decides he would rather race sports cars than continue on with NASCAR.

In Their Words
“It was a bittersweet season; I’m disappointed in the results, but not the effort. We were 21st in points [Montoya] and 27th [McMurray], and that’s pathetic for a team of our ability and resources.”
–Chip Ganassi

Predicted Number of Wins: 0

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
If Juan Pablo Montoya can keep his composure and worry more about collecting points rather than continuing to pick silly fights with the guy’s he races against weekly, and if the organizational changes that swept through Earnhardt-Ganassi do as intended, and if Chris Heroy, thanks to his Hendrick pedigree, can coax some more speed out of the EGR Chevys, then it’s very possible Montoya could find himself in the Chase for the second time. That however, is an awful lot of ifs.

Filed Under: 2012, Montoya, NASCAR, Preseason Rankings, Sub-Feature

Preseason Driver Rankings: #19 Martin Truex Jr.

02/14/2012 By Leave a Comment

Martin Truex Jr.
No. 56 NAPA Toyota
Team: Michael Waltrip Racing
Crew Chief: Chad Johnston

2011 Stats
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 3
Top-10s: 12
Poles: 1
DNF: 3
Average Start: 16.8
Average Finish: 17.7
Races Led: 16
Laps Led: 153
% Laps Completed: 95.6%
Points Finish: 18th

2011 in a Nutshell
With four straight finishes inside the top-20 to open the year, it appeared Martin Truex Jr. was going to make a run at his second and Michael Waltrip Racing’s first Chase berth. But as the calendar flipped to spring, the wheels figuratively and literally fell off the NAPA Toyota at Martinsville and Texas with back-to-back DNFs due to accidents. From that moment forth, reliability was a hard thing to come by for the 56 team. One or two good weeks were followed by weeks on end where Truex struggled just to run mid-pack, eventually burying the team in points and ending any hope he had of making the Chase.

Reasons to Believe
Toyota’s improved engine department should equate to more horsepower for Truex and Michael Waltrip Racing as a whole … With a previous trip to the Chase under his belt (2007), there’s no question Truex has what it takes to put himself in the Chase for the Sprint Cup … The addition of competition director Scott Miller is a great hire for an organization that has often been mismanaged and has underachieved … For the first time since joining MWR, Truex will have a teammate in Clint Bowyer who is experienced and a proven winner who he can lean on for help and guidance, something he really hasn’t had before at MWR … He runs well at Dover, New Hampshire and Homestead, all tracks in the Chase – that’s of course assuming he can get in … Truex has improved in every major statistical category from his first year (2010) at MWR to his second … He closed out 2011 on a high note with four top-10s in the last five races.

Reasons to Doubt
Truex’s last – and to date only win – was almost five years ago … Michael Waltrip Racing has never had one of its drivers qualify for the Chase … Only twice has an MWR car been to Victory Lane … Being a free agent at the end of the year may be too much pressure for Truex to handle as angles for a new contract … It’s entirely possible the addition of Bowyer could overshadow the 56 team … Resiliency is an issue with Truex and his team. Too often one bad race leads to a string of bad ones … He led more than 17 laps in 2011 just once … Truex posted an ungodly nine finishes of 25th or worse last year.

Area of Strength: Dover
He may have more impressive numbers at other tracks, but numbers be dammed, it’s on the Monster Mile where Martin Truex Jr. is at his best. It’s the site of his only Cup win and if everything goes accordingly, he can be counted on to be a fixture in the top-10.

Area of Weakness: Mile-and-a-half racetracks
With the exception of Homestead where he excels, the 1.5-mile tracks haven’t been too good for Truex. At Kansas, Atlanta, Charlotte and Las Vegas combined, the former two-time Nationwide Series champ has a mere four top-10 finishes in 39 starts. When you factor in these tracks make up a good portion of the Cup schedule, it doesn’t bode well for Truex’s chances to get back to the winner’s circle anytime soon.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
Driving for a new contract, Truex does what he did in 2007 by winning a race and easily making the Chase – a first for MWR — and is justly rewarded by Michael Waltrip with a contract extension.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
Like he has too often done in the past, Truex gets in a tailspin of poor finishes which derails any chance he has of making the Chase. This in turn triggers his departure at the end of the year from MWR.

In Their Words
“We really went through a lot of the races last year where things did go bad and tried to pick them apart and see, ‘How do we make sure these little things don’t happen again?’ I feel great — I’m happy. My team is incredible and we’re all back together — all the guys that we ended the year with last year, we’re all back together, which is a great thing.”
–Martin Truex Jr.

Predicted Number of Wins: 1

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
Since his arrival in 2010 at Michael Waltrip Racing, there has been numerous times where it looked like Martin Truex Jr. had turned the corner and was ready to contend on a regular basis. However, not once has it developed into anything substantial over the course of a full season. So it’s hard to think this is going to be the year where everything comes together. At this point in his career, Truex has to show me before I become a believer.

Filed Under: 2012, NASCAR, Preseason Rankings, Sub-Feature, Truex Jr.
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