2011 Stats
Wins: 1
Top-5s: 19
Top-10s: 26
Poles: 3
DNF: 0
Average Start: 9.4
Average Finish: 9.3
Races Led: 25
Laps Led: 903
% Laps Completed: 97.6%
Points Finish: 2nd

2011 in a Nutshell
From the outset Carl Edwards was viewed as a genuine favorite to contend for the 2011 title. Unlike previous years, Edwards performed up to the level expected of him. As a runner-up finish at Daytona, a win at Las Vegas and another second-place finish at Bristol put the Roush Fenway driver atop the point standings, a position he would hold for 23 of 36 weeks. But in the end, Edwards’ outstanding year just wasn’t enough. In the closest points race in NASCAR history, Tony Stewart edged out Edwards on a tiebreaker to win the Sprint Cup championship.

Reasons to Believe
Edwards topped everyone last year in top-fives and top-10s … Bob Osborne doesn’t get the attention or the credit as some other crew chiefs, but there is little doubt he is one of the very best in the garage. His pairing with Edwards might the best driver-crew chief relationship in all of NASCAR … The unquestioned lead driver at Roush Fenway Racing … Despite the organization having some sponsorship holes, that isn’t a concern for the 99 who has a throng of companies backing them financially … A reduced Nationwide Series will allow Edwards to focus more on his Cup ride which should have him more energized ( as if that’s at all possible) … A smooth style behind the wheel translates well to the intermediate tracks – a point of emphasis for Roush Fenway … The Chase schedule plays strongly into Edwards’ strengths.

Reasons to Doubt
Carl Edwards isn’t particularly bad on the road courses, but he should be better … Can this team go through another season unscathed without having some sort of mechanical gremlin put their car in the garage prematurely? … With the exception of last year, Edwards has had difficulty living up to preseason expectations … How does a team as great as the 99 team was a year ago win only once? … He should be better and needs to improve on the road courses, as well as Richmond and Chicagoland … While at times he’s been very fast at Texas, he needs to be more consistent on the 1.5-mile track … The lingering disappointment of last season is a HUGE concern.

Area of Strength: Intermediate tracks
Much like his Roush Fenway Racing brethren, Carl Edwards is at his absolute best on the intermediate ovals; as evident by 13 of his 19 Cup victories having come on mile-and-a-half two-mile tracks.

Area of Weakness: Following up
Call it a hangover if you will, but the following season hasn’t been too kind recently to the driver who finished second in the championship the year before. Last season Denny Hamlin dropped nine spots in the standings and went from wining eight races to just one. The year before that, 2009 runner-up Mark Martin went winless and didn’t make the Chase. Martin’s former Hendrick teammate also went winless in 2008 the year after finishing second to Jimmie Johnson. And Edwards’ himself twice previously put-up a goose egg in the win column after having finished second in points the year prior. More than anything else, this will be the biggest question facing Edwards and his team in 2012.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
Carl Edwards repeats his magical 2011 season with two notable exceptions. First, he wins more races. Second, instead of tying for the championship, the Missouri native decisively wins the title going away.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
Like Denny Hamlin last year, Carl Edwards’ can’t shake losing the championship in the way he did. As such, he’s in a funk for the entire season and does what he did two times prior after finishing runner-up in the standings – fails to win and essentially sleepwalks through the entire season.

In Their Words
“Last year, it bothered me after the race for a few minutes, but that’s not how I try to do things. I go out and do the best I can and I’m realist. There’s a reality in the world and the reality is we finished second, so that’s just it. I didn’t really have much trouble with that, but what I had trouble with was the waiting for this season – just sitting around with no racing, trying to get up in the morning and find constructive things to go do, because I’m ready to go race. I cannot wait to get in that race car next Sunday.”
–Carl Edwards

Predicted Number of Wins: 4

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
As demonstrated by what he did in 2011, Carl Edwards’ has gotten significantly better at managing expectations. Therefore rising up to the challenge of being a championship contender and putting last season behind him, shouldn’t be too tough of a task. Everything about this team screams championship. Now all they have to do is turn potential into reality.

Kyle Busch
No. 18 M&M’s/Snickers/Combos/Double Mint Gum/Interstate Batteries Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Crew Chief: Dave Rogers

2011 Stats
Wins: 4
Top-5s: 14
Top-10s: 18
Poles: 1
DNF: 4
Average Start: 15.3
Average Finish: 13.0
Races Led: 26
Laps Led: 1,455
% Laps Completed: 95.3%
Points Finish: 12th

2011 in a Nutshell
Through 26 races Kyle Busch had the appearance of a driver who had turned a corner. Gone were the moodiness and temper tantrums which had marked most of his career. In its place was a driver who appeared at ease with himself and his place in the sport. And this “new” Kyle Busch possessed all the same talent of the “old” Kyle Busch as demonstrated by his four victories during the regular season and claiming the number one seed going into the Chase. It was then, however, where the 26-year-old driver reverted back to his old ways. Not having the same speed in his cars as he had earlier in the year, Busch went winless. More telling and even more disconcerting was his on-track meltdown at Texas when he deliberately wrecked Ron Hornaday Jr. under caution and earned himself a one-race suspension by NASCAR. A year which had such grand potential, ended up being nothing more than a referendum on whether Busch would ever maximize his talent to its full potential.

Reasons to Believe
If you had to pick one driver to win a race on a given weekend, no matter the track, Kyle Busch would have to be that guy … There is not a track where Busch struggles … There is a genuine belief in the garage that his one race hiatus was the eye-opener he desperately needed … Crew chief Dave Rogers has a good gauge of his driver and knows how to harness his emotions … The merger of the JGR and the Toyota engine departments should be a big help for a team which lacked horsepower last year and had serious issues with reliability … No matter the caliber of the team he’s with, Busch is a virtual lock to lead a lot of laps and win multiple races … Fewer Nationwide and Truck Series races should help to keep Busch more focused on his Cup ride … Since joining JGR, he has won no fewer than four races in a season.

Reasons to Doubt
Until he actually shows it over an extended period of time, there will be serious doubts about whether Busch has the maturity to be a championship contender … He is still looking for his first Chase victory with Joe Gibbs Racing. More so, throughout his career, Busch has never done particularly well in the NASCAR’s 10-race playoff … If his car isn’t right, he’s prone to falling into the trap where he rants and raves instead of offering tangible feedback on how to make his Toyota better … There are those in the garage who insist he and JGR teammate Denny Hamlin don’t get along … His new Nationwide Series team could easily be an unwelcomed distraction.

Area of Strength: Richmond
Kyle Busch isn’t just good at Richmond, he’s sensational. Even that word may not give the proper amount of credit. But what is there to say about a guy who in 14 career starts one the .75-mile track has three wins, 11 top-fives, 12 top-10s, an average finish of 5.0 and hasn’t finished worse than sixth since Obama took office.

Area of Weakness: Maturity
There’s no need to continue to harp on a subject I’ve covered many times over. All that needs to be said, is if Kyle Busch wants to ever win a Sprint Cup championship, he is going to have to start acting like a professional driver not only when he’s behind the wheel but out of the car as well.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
In his fifth year driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, everything comes together for a focused and very determined Kyle Busch. Leading the Sprint Cup Series in wins, laps led, top-fives and top-10s, Busch drives to his first Cup championship.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
The anger issues resurface in a big way – think similar to what happened at Texas – and Joe and J.D. Gibbs have zero choice but to cut their talented driver loose in order to appease their sponsors who can no longer tolerate Busch’s antics.

In Their Words
“I know Denny (Hamlin) always had some reservations about engines or chassis or the way they were being made or what have you. I think for me and Dave [Rogers] (crew chief), we build off what we have and we work with what we’ve got. I’m not sure exactly what Denny was looking for, but I’m hoping that Darian [Grubb] (No. 11 crew chief) and Dave and Jason [Ratcliff] (No. 20 crew chief) can all put that together for this year and make it to where we’re all competitive and not just one of us is or none of us are, but we all are.”
–Kyle Busch

Predicted Number of Wins: 5

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
If Kyle Busch can keep his head on straight for an entire season, there is no way he won’t be in contention for the championship. Then again, that’s as big an ‘if’ in NASCAR as they come. Either Busch finally lives up to his potential or he has yet another relapse. No matter how it unfolds, it’s going to be a fantastic story.

Tony Stewart
No. 14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevy
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
Crew Chief: Steve Addington

2011 Stats
Wins: 5
Top-5s: 9
Top-10s: 19
Poles: 1
DNF: 1
Average Start: 17.7
Average Finish: 12.0
Races Led: 21
Laps Led: 913
% Laps Completed: 99.3%
Points Finish: 1st

2011 in a Nutshell
For 26 races, Tony Stewart was good some weeks, not so good other weeks. But he did just enough during the regular season to get into the Chase for the third straight year as an owner-driver. When the Chase began, Stewart put together an all-time great run – winning five races, finishing in the top-eight in three others and winning his third Sprint Cup championship, and his first as a car owner.

Reasons to Believe
On sheer talent, no one matches Tony Stewart … Steve Addington has worked with temperamental drivers in the past and should have no problem acclimating himself to Stewart’s quirks … As demonstrated by what he did in the Chase, Stewart is a streaky driver who has knack for winning in bunches … There are only three tracks on the schedule where Stewart has never won and one of them is Kentucky Speedway, where he has made just one start … The addition of Greg Zipadelli as competition director is a terrific hire and will allow Stewart to focus more on just being a racecar driver … Danica Patrick’s arrival – i.e. more importantly the sponsorship dollars she brings with her – will be a big boost for an organization that has had difficulty finding sponsorship for all its cars.

Reasons to Doubt
Separating the owner part of the equation from the driver part has been difficult for Stewart and was something that hindered his relationship with previous crew chief Darian Grubb … One outstanding performance in the Chase disguises the fact that this team was just ordinary during the regular season … There is a very real possibility bringing Danica onboard could be too much of a distraction for a guy who already has a heap of stuff on his plate … He needs to improve at Dover where he was considerably off the pace last year … The same thing can be said for Bristol, a track where he has an average finish of 21.0 in his last six starts.

Area of Strength: Team depth
As long as Tony Stewart the car owner has Tony Stewart as his driver, he will always have one of the most talented drivers in the garage wheeling his equipment. Further more, Stewart bringing over Greg Zipadelli, his former longtime crew chief at Joe Gibbs Racing, and Steve Addington to replace the fired Darian Grubb, makes this the deepest collection of talent Stewart-Haas Racing has ever had entering a season.

Area of Weakness: Dover
Stewart’s magical Chase run of a year ago nearly got derailed when he flat stunk at Dover, finishing 25th, two laps off the pace. The thing of it is, that was an improvement over the spring race, when he finished six laps down in 29th. If those numbers don’t scream weakness, I don’t know what does?

Best-case Scenario For 2012
The momentum from the end of 2011 carries over to ’12, and from Daytona to Homestead, Tony Stewart is an unstoppable force, cumulating with him winning his fourth series championship.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
The magic carpet ride comes to halt, Stewart and new crew chief Steve Addington don’t click, and it’s a return to the malaise that swallowed Stewart for much of the regular season. Except, this time it’s enough for the defending champ to miss out on the Chase – much like he did the last time he won the championship.

In Their Words
“We were immediately back on the job of trying to figure out how to do the same thing this year. It was easy to do that having Zippy (Greg Zipadelli) and Steve Addington come on board, guys that weren’t really with us when we won the championship at the end of the year. Their focus was on what we were going to do this year, so it kind of got the whole mindset of the shop to not get lazy and think about what we accomplished last year and get working on what we can do to try to repeat this year.”
–Tony Stewart

Predicted Number of Wins: 3

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
It’s hard to imagine Tony Stewart continuing at the torrid pace he had through the last 10 races of last year. On the other hand, it’s also hard to think there will be a noticeable drop-off with the loss of Darian Grubb, as Steve Addington is a more than worthy and capable replacement. But on paper, other teams look better and while I think the 14 team is a very good team, I think others are better.

Jimmie Johnson
No. 48 Lowes Chevy
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Crew Chief: Chad Knaus

2011 Stats
Wins: 2
Top-5s: 14
Top-10s: 21
Poles: 0
DNF: 2
Average Start: 12.9
Average Finish: 11.9
Races Led: 23
Laps Led: 1,115
% Laps Completed: 99.2%
Points Finish: 6th

2011 in a Nutshell
After five consecutive championship seasons which continually showcased the talent, depth, resolve and unflappability of the entire 48 team, the streak finally came to an end. That it came to end the way it did with Jimmie Johnson putting together statistically the worst season of his career, was not expected.

Reasons to Believe
Jimmie Johnson didn’t magically forget how to drive a racecar and Chad Knaus didn’t all of a sudden forget how to tune a car to go faster … The same core group which won five straight titles is still in place … After a season he referred to as both disappointing and frustrating, Johnson is determined to fight his way back to the top of the standings … A very focused Hendrick Motorsports could spell trouble for the competition … Johnson may not get the credit he’s due, but he is a damn fine racecar driver who has the talent to win anywhere … While they may not admit it publically, there’s a sense this team allowed themselves to get complacent, and the letdown of last year has allowed everyone on the 48 team to refocus … They were their own worst enemy last season continually throwing away potential wins and good finishes … Johnson has never won fewer than two races in a season and is the only driver to have qualified for every Chase For the Sprint Cup … He has racked-up over a thousand laps led for five straight years.

Reasons to Doubt
Career-lows in wins in 2011, and maybe more worrisome, is his win total has dropped for each of the last three years … Fatigue and the possibility of burnout is an issue with Chad Knaus. One has to wonder how much longer he can continue in his continued role  … The communication between Johnson and Knaus wasn’t there in 2011 and if that isn’t fixed, title No. 6 is nothing more than a pipedream … Furthermore, it seems as if both driver and crew chief are at the end of the rope with one another and a drastic change needs to occur … Yes, I know they won at Talladega last spring, regardless, how to approach the restrictor-plate races at Daytona and Talladega continue to confound Johnson and Knaus … Despite last year’s overhaul, the pit crew still is mistake-prone and slow.

Area of Strength: Resolve
Jimmie Johnson has been very candid about how much not winning the championship last season has bothered him. Listening to him speak over the offseason it’s apparent he is as determined as ever to get back what he thinks belongs to him. A fired-up and hungry Jimmie Johnson could be a very scary thing for the competition in 2012.

Area of Weakness: Fatigue
Last year, this group gave off the impression of a team that was worn-out. Understandably considering the microscope they’ve been under for the last five-pus years. And maybe an offseason devoid of all that goes into being the Sprint Cup champion is what Johnson needed. That said, this is something to monitor throughout the coming season.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
With last year nothing more than a blip in the record books, and after a stress-free offseason which allowed him to recharge his batteries, Johnson once again becomes the dominant force in Sprint Cup – winning the most races and stomping the competition in route to his sixth title.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
Instead of 2011 being a blip, it is actually a precursor of things to come. The relationship between Johnson and Knaus continues to disintegrates, to the point Knaus announces late in the summer he’s stepping down as crew chief of the 48 – effective immediately. While Johnson does get to Victory Lane a couple of times, it’s clear this team is no longer what they once were.

In Their Words
“I didn’t realize that over the five years or six years that we didn’t change as much maybe as we needed to and evolve. It’s tough to leave a successful road map and Chad and the team and I have been good at reinventing ourselves each year. But until the streak was broken, looking back at this off season what we have been through and trying to rebuild the team and make sure we are looking at everything we can, we have a different depth. I’m focusing on my interaction with the team, how I provide information with the team, what information I’m looking at. There are a lot of things I haven’t done in the past and I felt like I was one of the most in-depth drivers out there and I’m trying to even take those steps further now. So, because of the loss we have been able to dig deeper and get away from the road map we’ve built and challenge ourselves more. We have to reinvent ourselves in some ways this year and we are ready for it.”
–Jimmie Johnson

Predicted Number of Wins: 4

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
While I have questions about how much longer Chad Knaus is going to be the crew chief for Jimmie Johnson, I don’t question that the sum is greater than the parts. No matter who’s atop his pit box calling the shots, Johnson driving Chevrolet’s from Hendrick Motorsports is more than enough to go to war with. And if nothing else this season, the man who won five straight championships will show his run is far from over.

Matt Kenseth
No. 17 Best Buy/Valvoline/Zest Soap Ford
Team: Roush Fenway Racing
Crew Chief: Jimmy Fennig

2011 Stats
Wins: 3
Top-5s: 12
Top-10s: 20
Poles: 3
DNF: 3
Average Start: 14.2
Average Finish: 12.2
Races Led: 23
Laps Led: 875
% Laps Completed: 97.8%
Points Finish: 4th

2011 in a Nutshell
In his first full season working with Jimmy Fennig, Matt Kenseth saw a return to the stability which has been the hallmark of his career, and more importantly, a return to his winning ways after a 76-race drought. All told, Kenseth went to Victory Lane at Texas, Dover and Charlotte, and was in contention for his second series title until a blown tire at Martinsville with three races to go ended his title hopes.

Reasons to Believe
Kenseth is a smooth driver, who knows how to avoid trouble and doesn’t take unnecessary chances … He and crew chief Jimmy Fennig compliment one another nicely … Kenseth ss at his best on the mile-and-a-half tracks … He has finished fourth and fifth in the standings the last two years … Rarely, if ever, can you question Fennig’s decision-making during the race … The 2003 Sprint Cup champion doesn’t get rattled and doesn’t succumb to the pressures associated with racing for the championship … Kenseth runs great at and has multiple victories at Texas, Dover and Charlotte – all tracks in the Chase … He likes keeping a low profile and as such, has no trouble taking a backseat to teammate Carl Edwards … There is no reason to think Roush Fenway Racing won’t be as strong as they were a year ago.

Reasons to Doubt
He hasn’t won races in back-to-back seasons since 2006 and ’07 … With the exception of last year, he is typically a very poor qualifier … The lack of a fulltime sponsor is a huge concern … The perception is Jack Roush is putting his championship chips into Carl Edwards’ basket … Kenseth struggles at both Infineon and Watkins Glen and tends to get swept up in other’s messes at Daytona and Talladega … He is a free agent at the end of the year and his contract renegotiations could become a distraction.

Area of Strength: Mile-and-a-half to two-mile tracks
I am certainly no mathematician, but I do know when a driver has won 12 of 21 races on a particular kind of track, I take notice. And it’s worth noting, Kenseth has multiple victories at Texas, Charlotte, Fontana, Michigan and Las Vegas.

Area of Weakness: Road Courses
Matt Kenseth has won on tracks as diverse as Daytona, Bristol, Rockingham, Phoenix and just about everything in-between with one notable exception, road courses. And not only has the 2003 champ never won on a road course, in 24 combined starts, he’s never finished in the top-five.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
Flying under the radar in typical Matt Kenseth fashion, he quietly uses his trademark consistency to win a couple of times during the regular season and easily makes the Chase. In the final 10 races of the year, Kenseth wins once and top-10s everyone to death to claim his second championship.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
A slow start combined with a lack of a fulltime sponsor becomes too much of a distraction and the resulting effect has Kenseth missing the Chase for only the second time in his career.

In Their Words
“I think we performed better than Carl down the stretch, we really did. I think most races we ran better than him. At Homestead he was a tick better than us – a couple other races, but, really with David blowing up at Talladega really hurt us. That was probably a 15-spot swing and then we had Martinsville and Phoenix I wrecked out of both of those and that really hurt us, but just off of performance I thought we could outrun them. We weren’t as good as Tony, so we still need to get better, but I thought our performance was pretty good down the stretch. If we can build on that and make it a little bit better, and I can do a better job behind the wheel, I think we’re capable.”
–Matt Kenseth

Predicted Number of Wins: 2

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
He’s not as charismatic as Carl Edwards and doesn’t win with the same frequency as Jimmie Johnson and some others. But what Matt Kenseth does have is consistency and that can’t be ignored. If he can win a couple of races, particularly one in the Chase, there’s no reason he can’t put together a serious run and win his second championship.

Denny Hamlin
No. 11 FedEx Toyota
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Crew Chief: Darian Grubb

2011 Stats
Wins: 1
Top-5s: 5
Top-10s: 14
Poles: 0
DNF: 2
Average Start: 17.1
Average Finish: 16.0
Races Led: 15
Laps Led: 450
% Laps Completed: 98.4%
Points Finish: 9th

2011 in a Nutshell
Everyone on the FedEx team knew going into last year, there was a very real possibility that the disappointing way the 2010 season ended would carry over and affect the ’11 season. But a hangover like the one they experienced, which saw a dramatic drop in wins, top-fives, top-10s, laps led, morale, points finish and just about everything else, no one at Joe Gibbs Racing saw coming.

Reasons to Believe
Every year Hamlin has run fulltime, he’s won at least one race … The engine woes which handcuffed his team a year ago, have been addressed … Darian Grubb knows what it takes to win a championship and his calm demeanor over the radio should help put Hamlin more at ease and allow him to focus on driving … On that note, Hamlin seems more focused and has finally put 2010 behind him … A reshuffling of crew chiefs at JGR will inject some new blood into a organization which has grown a bit stale … As a follow-up to the previous point, this team needed a change atop the pit box a year ago due to the continued combativeness between Hamlin and former crew chief Mike Ford … Outside of the road courses and maybe Dover, Hamlin is skilled enough to win anywhere.

Reasons to Doubt
Say what you want about Mike Ford, but the fact is, under his watch the 11 team made six appearances in the Chase and won 17 races … Of the 23 tracks which makeup the Sprint Cup schedule, Hamlin has won on only eight of them … The JGR cars didn’t have a lot of speed in’11 and there is doubt whether they closed the gap in the offseason on the Roush and Hendrick cars … Hamlin isn’t the qualifier he used to be … Mechanical gremlins plague this team and organization.

Area of Strength: Short tracks in Virginia
Maybe it’s a coincidence, maybe it’s because he’s more motivated to do well in front of his home state fans, but whatever the reason, Denny Hamlin is at his absolute best at Richmond and Martinsville. Combined, between the two short tracks, he has six wins, 19 top-10s and over 2,000 laps led in just 25 starts.

Area of Weakness: Dover
He’s had his moments, but overall Dover International Speedway hasn’t been too good for Denny Hamlin. Four times he’s finished 36th or worse on the high-banked track, and only once has he only led in the 12 races he’s started. If Hamlin wants to contend for the championship, improving how he runs at the third track in the Chase is an absolute must.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
Darian Grubb duplicates the success he had with Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin finds his confidence, Joe Gibbs Racing solves their engine and mechanical problems, and it equates to Hamlin doing what he couldn’t do in 2010, and securing his first championship.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
Hamlin and Grubb don’t mesh, and for the first time in his career Hamlin finishes a year without a win and without being in the Chase.

In Their Words
“To stay successful, eventually you have to make change. The 14 (Tony Stewart) did it after a championship. For us, I know personally that Mike Ford is a winning crew chief and I’m not saying this because I’m trying to endorse him in any way, but I feel like he is one of the top-five crew chiefs within this garage. It was just something that needed to be done and I just feel like we have a great understanding and he is close with my family as well as I’m close with his. He is a friend to me first and he was a co-worker second. Sometimes you just have to make that change as tough as it is.”
–Denny Hamlin

Predicted Number of Wins: 3

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
I like this driver-crew chief combination a lot and I think with time, they could be a force. But I’m not sure it’s going to be this year. It’s going to take some time before the offseason shakeup at JGR to take effect. However, once it does, it wouldn’t surprise me the least bit if Hamlin replicates his 2010 season, or at least comes close to doing so, and makes a serious run at the title.

Kevin Harvick
No. 29 Budweiser/Jimmy John’s Chevy
Team: Richard Childress Racing
Crew Chief: Shane Wilson

2011 Stats
Wins: 4
Top-5s: 9
Top-10s: 19
Poles: 0
DNF: 1
Average Start: 18.8
Average Finish: 11.5
Races Led: 17
Laps Led: 403
% Laps Completed: 98.1%
Points Finish: 3rd

2011 in a Nutshell
For most drivers winning four races and finishing third in points would be cause for celebration. Except Kevin Harvick isn’t most drivers. And despite turning in another fine season which saw him once again challenge for the series crown, it wasn’t enough. Frustrated with the lack of communication between he and crew chief Gil Martin, not to mention the numerous races where the 29 team struggled to find speed, sweeping changes were made almost immediately after the checkered flag waved at Homestead. Enter Shane Wilson whose job it will be to lead Harvick to that elusive first series crown and find the consistency which eluded the 29 bunch throughout 2011.

Reasons to Believe
He has consecutive third-place finishes in the standings along with seven combined wins the last two years … Whether anyone wants to admit it or not, Kevin Harvick is the primary focus at Richard Childress Racing. Everything and anything that can be done to help him win the championship will be done … New crew chief Shane Wilson has worked with Harvick in the past, which should make the transition seamless … Intermediate tracks, which used to be an Achilles heel for this team, are now some of their best tracks as evident by their wins the last couple of years at Michigan, Auto Club Speedway and Charlotte … No surprise considering he drives for Richard Childress, Harvick is an ace on the plate tracks … Harvick has had success on flat one-mile ovals, road courses, superspeedways, mile-and-a-half’s, and pretty much everything in-between … This team is great at salvaging a bad day where they’re just off and turning it into a good day with a solid result … No driver is better in the closing laps than Harvick.

Reasons to Doubt
He is just an atrocious qualifier who has little to no desire to get better … Doesn’t communicate well with his team, especially when his car isn’t where he wants it. Instead of offering feedback, Harvick tends to just rant … Gets in stretches where he’s virtually invisible … The “Championship or bust” mantra could easily backfire … This team is consistent but isn’t consistent enough as they need to string together more consecutive top-10 finishes … Being the crew chief for Kevin Harvick comes with an extremely short shelf life … Harvick used to be great at Bristol, but his results have fallen off noticeably the last few years … Did a team which finished third these last two years really need a change atop it’s pit box?

Area of Strength: Homestead
The easy answer is Daytona and Talladega, but let’s instead highlight a lesser known strength of Kevin Harvick. If he finds himself is in the thick of the championship fight going into the last race of the year at Homestead, the competition should be concerned. Despite being winless there, the South Florida track is one of Harvick’s best, as he’s finished in the top-10 nine times in 11 races, and has an average finish of 7.9.

Area of Weakness: Winning in the Chase
In 2010 and ’11 Kevin Harvick had no problems winning during the regular season. But once the Chase starts, his winning ways go by the wayside. At least it’s been that way since 2006, the last time Harvick has posted a victory in a Chase race.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
After coming close the last two years, Kevin Harvick clears the final hurdle and wins his first championship and the first for Richard Childress since 1994.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
The pressure to win the championship becomes too much for a team that at times still has chemistry issues. The result is a considerable drop in wins, top-fives and top-10s, with the team barely missing out on the Chase.

In Their Words
“I think if we could combine the two Chases (2010 and ’11), that would make a great Chase. We were very consistent in 2010. We were very inconsistent in 2011. We had speed in 2010, we didn’t have the speed we had in 2010 that we had in 2011. I think you need a combination of those two things. You have to have the capabilities in your cars of speed like Stewart had last year so that you can have a couple of bad races so you can go out and knock out a couple of wins. I think if you have that speed in your car and that capability no matter how bad a day you have a couple of races you can go out and overcome consistency with wins.”
–Kevin Harvick

Predicted Number of Wins: 1

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
For a team which finished the year third overall, there sure were a lot of changes on the flagship team for Richard Childress Racing. If the gamble proves to be correct, and a change in leadership is what the 29 team needed, then Harvick should again be in the thick of the championship picture. If not, and he and Shane Wilson fail to gel, then a step back is almost certain.

Jeff Gordon
No. 24 Drive to End Hunger/DuPont/Pepsi Chevy
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Crew Chief: Alan Gustafson

2011 Stats
Wins: 3
Top-5s: 13
Top-10s: 18
Poles: 1
DNF: 3
Average Start: 14.4
Average Finish: 13.0
Races Led: 22
Laps Led: 922
% Laps Completed: 97.8%
Points Finish: 8th

2011 in a Nutshell
Before the season, the consensus among the pundits – including myself – was that Alan Gustafson was going to jumpstart Jeff Gordon’s career and take him to a level he hadn’t been at in a couple of years. And that’s exactly what happened; as two races into the year Gordon snapped his 66-race winless streak and went on to win two other events. While it did take some time to build some consistency, eventually that came around as well, and Gordon, at times, looked like the driver of yesteryear.

Reasons to Believe
The chemistry he has with crew chief Alan Gustafson is reminiscent of the bond he used to have with Ray Evernham … Three wins is a strong indicator that the fire still burns within Gordon … Gustafson is one of the best head wrenches in the garage and he knows what changes are needed midrace to make a car better for last 50 miles … In their second year together the rapport between Gordon and Gustafson should be even better … Gordon is an all-time great driver who can win anywhere and has, with the exception of Kentucky and Homestead … His 13 top-fives were the fourth most.

Reasons to Doubt
The 24 team had stretches last year where they were just pedestrian, especially during the Chase where they were just ordinary … Before last season, Gordon had won just once in three seasons … 2007 was the last year the four-time champ seriously contended for the title … An Alan Gustafson led team has never won multiple races in consecutive seasons … Gordon will be hard-pressed to duplicate his success in 2011 … He has to do away with the six finishes of 25th or worse … It’s been 10 years since his last championship.

Area of Strength: Martinsville
Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin may have usurped Jeff Gordon as the King of Martinsville, but that doesn’t mean he has forgotten how to navigate the tricky half-mile track. Seven wins, an exceptional average finish of 6.9 and 17 top-10s in his last 18 starts, more than show that.

Area of Weakness: Collecting trophies
There was a time not too long ago when you could count on Jeff Gordon not only to win in a given year, but to do so many times over. Now though, expecting the guy who’s won 85 times in his career to win multiple races is no given. Since the beginning of the 2008 season, Gordon has made just four voyages to Victory Lane, and has failed to win races in consecutive years. If he is to contend, and possibly secure another title, winning races – plural – is an absolute must.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
10 years after last tasting championship glory, Jeff Gordon does so once again and finally gets that elusive fifth title.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
Zero wins, a lack of consistency, and while he does get into the Chase, he’s a virtual nonfactor throughout.

In Their Words
“He (car owner Rick Hendrick) provides us with the most amazing equipment and people. As drivers, when you come to work for Hendrick Motorsports, you know you better step up you game. You need to put your game face on.”
–Jeff Gordon

Predicted Number of Wins: 2

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
As noted above, it comes to winning for Jeff Gordon. If he can find Victory Lane and do so somewhat regularly, he appears poised to finally get his fifth Sprint Cup trophy. Otherwise, if the wins are hard to come by, it will be the 11th straight year where Gordon has failed to win his fifth championship.

What I like about this time of the year more than anything else, is not the long offseason coming to a close. To me, what stands out is the optimism shared by everyone in the garage.

Throughout the offseason and into Speedweeks, drivers and teams alike, think this is going to be their year. The general feeling being, “Whatever issues we dealt with last season are behind us and now is our time.”

Obviously this isn’t the case, and it won’t be too long before that sense of hope and good feeling will soon erode into the reality that there are 42 losers every week and only one winner.

Teams, who started the year out on a shoestring budget with the grandeur thought of doing the next-to-impossible, will more than likely realize that they will not achieve their dream, and will soon cease to exist altogether due to a lack of funds.

Drivers who thought this was the year they were finally going to win that elusive championship, will somewhere along the way have their title dreams dashed by bad luck, miscommunication, faulty equipment, an error in judgment, or a combination of all of the above.

For now though, let’s bask in the glory of what surely will be a memorable Daytona 500 and what is setting up to be a fantastic season. Of which where there is no clear-cut favorite to win either.

However, before we turn our attention to Sunday’s spectacle and the official start to the 2012 season, let’s first shine the spotlight on the season as a whole, and sort through who I think is going to do what.

Who is the 2012 Sprint Cup champion?
For the last six seasons, I’ve always been an ardent believer that until someone knocked Jimmie Johnson off the championship pedestal, he was unquestionably the favorite entering the season. Now for the first time since the beginning of the 2006 season, we enter a year without Johnson being referred to as the “defending champ.” And while it’s very easy to say the man who won five consecutive titles will return to his winning ways in ‘12, I don’t think that’s the case.

In what I think will be a wide-open title race, I strongly believe when the checkered flag waves at Homestead to closeout the 2012 season, it will be the man who came oh so close a year ago to winning it all, finally seizing the brass ring.

After several near-misses, and with the speed, smarts and the confidence needed to win, not to mention a great team instep with him, everything is lining up for Carl Edwards to win his first Sprint Cup championship.

While I think there is still something to be said about the “Season-After Affect” that has recently plagued the guy who finished second in points the year before, Edwards will prove to be immune from such a disease.

Your 2012 Chase for the Sprint Cup participants will be?
Take out a pen and write down in no particular order the names of Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon. These eight drivers will one way or another find themselves in the Chase, either via the points they accumulate during the regular season or by snagging one of the two available wildcard spots.

If you’re wondering about Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick, neither are locks in my mind. I think both will struggle to match their performance of a year ago, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if one or both missed the Chase cutoff.

After that, things get a bit more fluid.

Certainly in the mix are Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, AJ Allmendinger and Ryan Newman, and it’s safe to say if everything breaks right, both Michael Waltrip Racing drivers, Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr., could find themselves competing for a Chase berth.

I also anticipate Jeff Burton rebounding from a down year and returning to the Chase. Using his trademark consistency, look for the Richard Childress Racing driver to employ a steady diet of top-15 finishes to succeed in making his second Chase in three seasons.

Furthermore, don’t be surprised if Marcos Ambrose ends up in the Chase based on a win at one of the two road courses. He’s quietly evolved into a well-rounded driver, and if he won on an oval this year it would surprise no one.

With a gun to my head my 12 Chase drivers are the aforementioned seven of Edwards, Johnson, Stewart, Hamlin, Kahne, Kenseth, Busch and Gordon, along with Harvick, Biffle, Burton and, what the hell, Marcos Ambrose.

Your biggest surprise of 2012, will be?
I tipped my hand my above by picking him to make the Chase, but nonetheless, I have a strong feeling about Marcos Ambrose in 2012.

First and foremost, because of his tremendous ability on the road courses of Infineon and Watkins Glen, Ambrose will be a serious threat to win both. If he can complete the road course sweep, all the Aussie would have to do to qualify for his first Chase is maintain a spot somewhere in the top-20 in points. Not an unrealistic possibility considering in three full seasons, Ambrose has twice finished in the top-20, including a 19th-place finish last year in the final standings.

Also, keep in mind Ambrose has dramatically improved on tracks where he’s only required to turn left. With cars and engines supplied by Roush Fenway Racing, there’s no doubting his Ford Fusion should be good enough to contend most weeks on the ovals.

Entering in his second year with Richard Petty Motorsports, I believe Ambrose is ready to take the next step in his NASCAR career.

How will Danica Patrick do in her first full season in NASCAR?
I admit, I had serious doubts about Danica Patrick and how she would do racing full-bodied racecars.

While it took some time, you can’t deny she has slowly figured how to race a stock car and what is required of her if she wants to be known for more than just what she does off the track and the flashy Super Bowl commercials she stars in.

But after some noticeable growing pains, the only female to win an IndyCar race will have what I feel everyone will consider a successful first full season in NASCAR.

Now, that doesn’t mean she’s going to win a Nationwide Series race while running the full schedule, or score top-10 finish in one of the 10 Sprint Cup races she’s going to compete in.

Instead, I do expect her to come close on a couple of occasions to winning a Nationwide race, and I do expect her to finish the year somewhere in the top-10 in points.

Although, I don’t see her making an immediate impact in Cup, I also don’t think she is going to embarrass herself either.

Helping matters greatly is the strong support cast she has around her consisting of Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Nationwide Series crew chief Tony Eury Jr., and the new competition director of Stewart-Haas Racing, Greg Zipadelli, among others.

At the very least, now that she is a fulltime NASCAR driver, by the end of the year – one way or another – we will have a fairly good idea of where Danica stacks up talent-wise to those she races against on a weekly basis.

Will this be the year, finally, that Dale Earnhardt Jr. gets back to the winner’s circle?
The short answer is yes. Although, I feel like I say that every season and all Earnhardt continues to do is fall short.

Entering his second season working with crew chief Steve Letarte, and after being painstakingly close several times last year, NASCAR’s favorite son should finally unlock the door to Victory Lane.

And don’t be at all surprised if it happens Sunday, in the Daytona 500.

With the rule changes on restrictor-plate tracks ushering in the return on pack racing, Earnhardt has looked like his old self throughout Speedweeks. He’s been a constant up front, and with a little luck he could have easily won either the Budweiser Shootout or his Gatorade Duel qualifying race.

If not the 500, look for Earnhardt to snap that three-plus year winless streak at Texas, Charlotte, Talladega or the return trip to Daytona on Fourth of July weekend.

After a season in which five drivers scored their first win, who will be the next first time Sprint Cup winner?
How slim are the pickings of drivers who might win for the first time? Using the field for last year’s season finale at Homestead as our guide, only 11 of the 43 starters have never tasted success at the Sprint Cup level. Among the names in questions are such luminaries as T.J. Bell, Michael McDowell, David Gilliland, David Stremme, J.J. Yeley and Dave Blaney.

Do you think any of those above guys are going to win this year? You and I both know the answer to that question.

There is only driver who has yet to win, drives for a team capable of winning, and is ready to do so. That of course is AJ Allmendinger.

In his first season as Kurt Busch’s replacement at Penske Racing, Allmendinger should have fast Dodge Chargers underneath him on an almost weekly basis. With the equipment and team provided to him, ‘Dinger should have ample opportunity to get his first NASCAR victory of any kind; now he just as to go out and do it.

###

As has become the norm, here is my annual exercise in futility; predicting which driver is going to win what races.

2/26 Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway
Tony Stewart

3/4 Subway Fresh Fit 500
Phoenix International Raceway
Carl Edwards

3/11 Kobalt Tools 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Matt Kenseth

3/18 Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway
Kyle Busch

3/25 Auto Club 400
Auto Club Speedway
Jimmie Johnson

4/1 Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500
Martinsville Speedway
Denny Hamlin

4/14 Samsung Mobile 500
Texas Motor Speedway
Carl Edwards

4/22 Kansas Speedway 400
Kansas Speedway
Greg Biffle

4/28 Crown Royal 400
Richmond International Raceway
Kyle Busch

5/6 Aaron’s 499
Talladega Superspeedway
Kevin Harvick

5/12 Showtime Southern 500
Darlington Raceway
Kyle Busch

5/19 Sprint All-Star Race *Non-points*
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Jimmie Johnson

5/27 Coca-Cola 600
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Kasey Kahne

6/3 Dover 400
Dover International Speedway
AJ Allmendinger

6/10 Pocono 400
Pocono Raceway
Greg Biffle

6/17 Michigan 400
Michigan International Speedway
Carl Edwards

6/24 Toyota/Save Mart 350
Infineon Raceway
Kyle Busch

6/30 Quaker State 400
Kentucky Speedway
Jamie McMurray

7/7 Coke Zero 400 Powered By Coca-Cola
Daytona International Speedway
Dale Earnhardt Jr.

7/15 Lenox Industrial Tools 301
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Tony Stewart

7/29 Brickyard 400
Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Jeff Gordon

8/5 Pennsylvania 400
Pocono Raceway
Greg Biffle

8/12 Sprint Cup Series at The Glen
Watkins Glen
Marcos Ambrose

8/19 Pure Michigan 400
Michigan International Speedway
Brad Keselowski

8/25 Irwin Tools Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway
Kyle Busch

9/2 Annual Advocare 500
Atlanta Motor Speedway
Kasey Kahne

9/8 Wonderful Pistachios 400
Richmond International Raceway
Denny Hamlin

9/16 Geico 400
Chicagoland Speedway
Jimmie Johnson

9/23 Sylvania 300
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Jimmie Johnson

9/30 AAA 400
Dover International Speedway
Martin Truex Jr.

10/7 Good Sam Club 500
Talladega Superspeedway
Jeff Gordon

10/13 Bank of America 500
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Kasey Kahne

10/21 Hollywood Casino 400
Kansas Speedway
Carl Edwards

10/28 TUMS Fast Relief 500
Martinsville Speedway
Jimmie Johnson

11/4 AAA Texas 500
Texas Motor Speedway
Denny Hamlin

11/13 Phoenix 500
Phoenix International Raceway
Tony Stewart

11/18 Ford 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway
Matt Kenseth

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Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Kasey Kahne
No. 5 Farmer’s Insurance/Hendrick Cars.com/Quaker State Chevy
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Crew Chief: Kenny Francis

2011 Stats
Wins: 1
Top-5s: 8
Top-10s: 15
Poles: 2
DNF: 4
Average Start: 11.3
Average Finish: 15.6
Races Led: 15
Laps Led: 340
% Laps Completed: 92.3%
Points Finish: 14th

2011 in a Nutshell
A very compelling case could be made that no driver did more with less in 2011 than Kasey Kahne. Despite driving for Red Bull Racing, as dysfunctional a team as they come, Kahne made one trip to Victory Lane, nearly won several others, and finished a very respectable 14th overall. He did all this while continually to show the talent which has earned him a seat with NASCAR’s preeminent organization.

Reasons to Believe
Kasey Kahne is one of the most skilled drivers in NASCAR who will finally be driving equipment that matches his immense talent … Outside of Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus, Kahne and Kenny Francis might be the best combination in the garage … Francis’ engineering background makes him an ideal fit at Hendrick and he should have no problem adjusting to his new home … Kahne can win on any kind of track on any given weekend … For the first time in what seems like forever, Kahne finally has stable ownership and doesn’t have to worry about his future … He is excellent on the intermediate tracks and should be improved at Daytona and Talladega, thanks to Hendrick horsepower … Kahne is an exceptional qualifier … In his eight years in Cup, he’s never led less than 186 laps in a single season.

Reasons to Doubt
Kahne has never had to play second fiddle, let alone third fiddle, on a team before…It will be interesting to see how he fits in with his more accomplished teammates … Many a driver has joined Hendrick seemingly a “perfect fit” and many a driver has failed to live up to the hype … Kahne is prone to the occasional stretch where he disappears on the track and he does have a tendency to push his equipment too hard … Dover, Talladega, Chicagoland, Martinsville and Texas are among his worst tracks statistically and all of them are in the Chase … He has never has finished in the top-10 at Watkins Glen.

Area of Strength: Kenny Francis
If you take Chad Knaus out of the equation, Kenny Francis might be the best crew chief in NASCAR. With an engineering mindset that will play well with an organization as technologically advanced as any in the sport, Francis has been atop the pit box for 12 of Kahne’s 13 Cup victories and has twice guided him to the Chase for the Sprint Cup. And don’t think for a second Francis is merely benefitting because he’s working with a great driver, as he also called the shots for Jeremy Mayfield in 2004, winning once and making the Chase.

Area of Weakness: Being the fourth team at Hendrick
Wait a second, your asking yourself “How is driving for organization that has won 10 Sprint Cup titles since 1995 a bad thing?” It’s not that it’s a bad thing per say, it’s more the fact Hendrick Motorsports has never placed more than three cars in the Chase in any given year. Maybe it was because of whom they had driving the fourth car or maybe it was matter of not having enough resources and depth in the personnel ranks? Whatever the reason, you do have to wonder if Hendrick can break the hex and finally have all of its drivers compete in the Chase?

Best-case Scenario For 2012
Kasey Kahne duplicates what the man he’s replacing did in his first year at Hendrick. For those who don’t remember, all Mark Martin did was snag five wins and finish runner-up in points to Jimmie Johnson. This is a very realistic scenario for Kahne in 2012.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
Like Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kenny Schrader, Ricky Craven, Casey Mears and others before him, Kasey Kahne finds life at Hendrick Motorsports isn’t all its cracked up to be. Kahne flounders, his relationship with Kenny Francis starts to show cracks, and ultimately, it’s another lost year in a career filled with them for the 31-year-old driver.

In Their Words
“I think that we’re going to have really good equipment and going to have a great team, and I still have Kenny Francis, so the communication is going to be there. So yeah, we’ll just see how high we can rise, how well we can step-up and see what we can do throughout the whole season. That’s my biggest deal this year is to be as consistent as I’ve ever been each week and to win races. If we can do that, we’re going to have a great year.”
–Kasey Kahne

Predicted Number of Wins: 3

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
This is Kasey Kahne’s time. He has the perfect team behind him led by a guy in Kenny Francis who he has a phenomenal relationship. For Kahne, everything is on the table this season – a multitude of wins, a high finish in points, and if everything goes right, his first Sprint Cup trophy. Conversely, if he doesn’t meet the minimalist of expectations, it’s going to be him and no one else who bears the brunt of the blame.