Preseason Driver Rankings: #25 Regan Smith

Regan Smith
No. 78 Furniture Row Chevrolet
Team: Furniture Row Racing
Crew Chief: Pete Rondeau

2011 Stats
Wins: 1
Top-5s: 2
Top-10s: 5
Poles: 0
DNF: 4
Average Start: 14.8
Average Finish: 21.5
Races Led: 6
Laps Led: 36
% Laps Completed: 92.6%
Points Finish: 26th

2011 in a Nutshell
With top-10 finishes in the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600 and the Brickyard 400, NASCAR’s favorite underdog driver took his turn in the spotlight in 2011. But it was in the Southern 500, the circuit’s oldest race, where Regan Smith showed he had the chops to compete with the sport’s best. On old tires, Smith fended off Carl Edwards, who had fresh rubber and a faster car, and scored he and his team’s first Sprint Cup victory.

Reasons to Believe
Technical alliance with Richard Childress Racing ensures the team isn’t lacking on the equipment side of things … Smith is a sneaky good qualifier with a better average starting position last year than a host of drivers including Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart … Has improved his average finishing position each year he’s been in Cup … The organization knows how to maximize its small budget to the fullest … Last year’s win wasn’t just them catching lightning in a bottle.

Reasons to Doubt
Over the course of a full season, single-car teams simply can’t compete with any regularity with the bigger, deeper and better financed teams … Smith in 131 Cup starts has just five finishes inside the top-10 … This team still has major issues with consistency … The 36 laps Smith led last year was the sixth fewest among drivers who started all 36 races … Although it’s impressive what this team has accomplished, you get the feeling that they’ve hit the proverbial ceiling on just how competitive they can be week in and week out … The team’s Denver location makes it hard to attract quality people.

Area of Strength: Restrictor-plate tracks
In large part due to their alliance with Richard Childress Racing which supplies the single-car effort with engines and chassis’, Furniture Row Racing has proven to be a player anytime the series rolls into Daytona or Talladega. In 2011, Smith nearly won the Daytona 500 before fading back to seventh and led laps in three of the four plate events. If this team is going to win again this coming season, the odds are high it will be on a track where NASCAR restricts the airflow to the engine.

Area of Weakness: Consistency
While 2011 may have had plenty of high-water marks for Regan Smith, the fact is there were simply too many weeks where he was a nonfactor. If the native of Cato, N.Y., is to take the next step in his career, he’s going to have to be more consistent and start stringing together more finishes inside the top-15. Not once last year did he have consecutive races where he finished 15th or better, and even more telling, is the 10 finishes he posted of 30th or worse. No matter how good you are, you’re not going to finish 20th in points, let alone contend for a spot in the Chase, by throwing that many points out the window 10 times a year.

Best-case Scenario For 2012
Using last year as a launching point, Regan Smith again finds Victory Lane, finds the consistency he’s been lacking, finishes top-20 in points and continues to show why he deserves a ride with a top team.

Worst-case Scenario For 2012
2011 proves to be nothing more than a fluke and this team takes a big step back from where they were a year ago. And at the end of the season, Regan Smith leaves for greener pastures.

In Their Words
“We sat here last year talking to everyone and I said I felt like this team could win a race. Some of you agreed with me and some of you looked at me like I had a third eye. But, at the end of day, I truly believed that. My win at Darlington helped elevate everyone’s confidence and we will continue to build on that success in 2012.”
–Regan Smith

Predicted Number of Wins: 0

The Racing Geek’s Final Thought
Regan Smith is as nice a guy as you’ll find in the garage, and what team owner Barney Visser has done in putting together Furniture Row Racing should be commended. That being said, it’s hard to fathom them being much better than they were last season.

What you can expect out of this bunch in 2012 is some weeks where they’re contenders, other weeks where they’re out to lunch, and a lot weeks where they’re just so-so. Add it all up and a 25th place finish in the yearend standings seems about right.

Monday’s Thoughts: Amid Chaos, Regan Smith Emerges

Let’s make this clear, the Kyle Busch – Kevin Harvick fracas was certainly the A1 story Saturday night. At the very least, this will be the first thing brought up by anyone who follows the sport, casually or otherwise when discussing the Showtime Southern 500.

While there is plenty to say about what happened between the two combatants. Busch and Harvick happen to be NASCAR’s better drivers, and both have a real chance to win the championship. Dare I say there was a far more important occurrence on Saturday evening?

Coming into this weekend Regan Smith had posted just one top-10 finish in 104 career starts — a seventh in the Daytona 500 this past February. For a variety of justifiable reasons, despite being full of promise and potential, he was not looked as a favorite to win.

Namely, he drives for a team, Furniture Row Motorsports, which in seven years of existence and 136 prior races had never come close to winning. They don’t even have their own pit crew. They have to lease one from Stewart-Haas Racing.

All that aide, there was Smith and his lowly single-car team, on a night when cars from the stables of Jack Roush, Joe Gibbs and Team Red Bull dominated for almost the entire evening, holding the winner’s trophy in victory lane.

This isn’t supposed to happen in the granddaddy of them all, the Southern 500.

Historically this is a race dominated by the greats of the sports. Drivers who have the last name Pearson, Petty, Earnhardt or Gordon.

“This is so special,” beamed Smith. “We were looking at the names and faces on the trophy. You think about it; my face is going to be right there next to these guys and it’s going to be there forever. You can’t change that. It certainly means a lot to me.”

One of NASCAR’s four crown jewel races, and on the tricky and treacherous track dubbed “Too Tough to Tame,” this has never been a race where a little known driver with the last name of Smith finds a way to topple the current points leader. Who in this case was Carl Edwards, and with four fresh Goodyear tires underneath him, appeared destine to drive away with the victory.

Yet, thanks to a never give-up attitude, an unwavering belief in himself and his team, as well as a gutty gamble to forsake new tires with 10 laps to go, there was Smith trying furiously to hold off Edwards’ as the two charged towards the checkered flag.

To the point Smith was driving so hard off of Turn 2 on the white flag lap, his black Chevrolet jumped sideways on him and he slapped the outside retaining wall.

Like a veteran, Smith kept his cool and poise. Most importantly, he kept his foot firmly planted on the gas, was able to gather his car back up and still maintain his lead over Edwards’ No. 99 Aflac Ford.

Ultimately crossing the start/finish line ahead of Edwards and in the process picking up his first career victory of what has been a star-crossed career. A career which includes a overruled win at Talladega three years ago being taken away when it was deemed Smith went below the yellow out-of-bounds line to pass race-leader Tony Stewart.

A controversial decision which still rankles many in the garage, who feel Smith was robbed.

“I’ll be honest with you, I didn’t know if I was ever going to get it back,” Smith said referring to his near-miss at Talladega. “To get it back at Darlington, absolutely it’s vindication. Winning here to me means more to me than that win could have ever meant.

“I don’t think I’ll go to bed tonight thinking about Talladega, that’s for sure.”

On this night, David slayed Goliath. Doing so with old tires, an engine and chassis from another team, and with a pit crew he really can’t call his own. It’s not quite a slingshot, but it’s as close as it gets in NASCAR.

Even amid the jubilation of his accomplishment, Smith was able to recognize the improbability of the feat he just pulled off.

“You have the Daytona 500, the Southern 500, the Coke 600, and the Brickyard 400,” Smith said. Those are the four. “And to come here and beat a guy like Carl Edwards, it’s incredible.

“Cinderella story. Whatever is written about it, I’m perfectly fine with it. I don’t care, because we still get a trophy.”

If it felt like you were watching something from yesteryear, you weren’t the only one. Saturday night was like taking a trip back 30 years. To an era when it wasn’t considered implausible that a small single-car team could scrap together the resources to go racing with the hope that through the combination of hard work and a little luck, mixed with some talent they could achieve their dream.

The plight of the small team in today’s big money world of Sprint Cup racing isn’t new. It’s a common gripe among fans and competitors that only a few select organizations get to ascend to the top of the NASCAR Mountain. But twice this season, and in the irony of all ironies, in the two biggest races, it was a small team driving into victory lane.

All the while those larger, better funded operations stood there with their mouths agape wondering how team with a fraction of their budget had just taken it to them.

That’s why if you take away anything from this past weekend, it’s not what’s going to happen next in the Busch – Harvick soap opera. No matter how compelling it may be.

What deserves the spotlight is this: a driver looking for redemption paired with a small team based in Colorado of all places, and not North Carolina, the hub of NASCAR. Who together prevailed in the unlikeliest of fashions in a race they weren’t supposed to win.

Busch and Harvick have had their days in the sun, and they will continue to have many more. This moment belongs to Regan Smith and no one else. So I say let him enjoy it while it lasts.

 

 

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Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Daytona Leftovers

When you’re in Daytona for two-weeks, there are a lot of things that transpire which can get overlooked. Not intentionally mind you, but more so because of the enormity of everything that’s going on around you.

For me, this was the first time in my career where I’ve covered Speedweeks from the outset. As I look back, I’m amazed at everything that took place in the span of 14 days.

In a two-week period we saw drivers topping 200 mph, which NASCAR quickly fixed with a series of rule changes they seemingly called for on the fly, after Dale Earnhardt Jr. blistered to the 500 pole, there were whispers NASCAR was fixed, steering wheels coming off during qualifying laps, Danica Patrick actually leading and looking somewhat competent driving a stockcar, a surprise winner, big names wrecking big, and of course the 10-year anniversary of the death of Dale Earnhardt.

So as I flip through my notebook, here are some things I’ve neglected to shed much, or any, light on these two-and-a-half weeks.

►Outside of Trevor Bayne for obvious reasons, there may not have been a driver who impressived more folks in the garage than Regan Smith. Smith quickly mastered the two-car tandem drafting, so much so, he played a pivotal role in pushing Kurt Busch to victory in the first Gatorade Duel. In Sunday’s 500, Smith was the guy everyone wanted to work with and if it weren’t for a late-race scrap, it might have been the 27-year-old driver pulling the upsets of all upsets.

Instead, like he has for most of his career, Smith slipped under the radar of the public and finished a quiet eighth, his first career top-10 finish. One would think this might open the door for some bigger opportunities. I even talked to an owner Sunday morning who made it a point to mention Smith by name as a driver who he would like to see behind the wheel of one of his racecars.

However, the way things are shaping up, it may be awhile before he lands with a big team.

As it’s been noted by me and others, there’s a glut of marquee drivers whose contracts are up at the end of the season. My thought is because Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin and others will get most of the attention, and because of the shortage of rides with a big team that will be available, Smith will likely once again get lost in the shuffle.

►Following the conclusion of a race, it’s customary for NASCAR to bring the second- and third-place finishers into the media center to answer questions. This was no different Sunday, as both Carl Edwards and David Gilliland came after the 500 to field questions from the throng of reporters.

Not surprisingly, Edwards was the more sought-after driver of the two, due to his near-win along with his relationship with winner Trevor Bayne. By my count the Roush Fenway driver was asked almost 20 questions, while the guy sitting to his left got all of five.

As I sat there listening to Edwards and Gilliland speak, it dawned on me how difficult it must be for Gilliland to be in the position that he now finds himself in.

It wasn’t too long ago, after a stunning Nationwide Series win at Kentuck,y that it was he who was one of the more coveted young drivers in NASCAR and the apple of Ford’s eye.

After evaluating his many suitors, the California driver elected to sign a Sprint Cup contract with Robert Yates Racing, which was in the midst of trying to pull itself out of a tailspin. Much like the situation in recent years the Wood Brothers have found themselves in.

Yet unlike Trevor Bayne, Gilliland wasn’t able to restore Yates Racing to the lofty heights it once experienced and the team continued to slide towards mediocrity and eventually irrelevance. When sponsorship couldn’t be found, the former Daytona 500 polesitter was cut loose prior to the 2009 season.

Since then, if Gilliland wanted to race, he had to take rides with small, underfunded teams. Much like the one he was driving for on Sunday, Front Row Motorsports.

Of course, it’s only fitting that on the day of his finest moment in NASCAR, another driver was taking the spotlight and all the headlines that come with winning the Daytona 500. But being overlooked is a position Gilliland has grown accustomed to the last couple of years.

►It doesn’t happen often, but Jimmie Johnson was a virtual non-factor in Daytona. He finished a quiet 11th in his Duel race and consequently started mid-pack in the 500, which played a role in Johnson getting caught up in the same wreck that collected Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin.

More importantly, it speaks volumes to the struggles the 48 team has had in the 500 since winning the “Great American Race” in 2006. In the five years since, Johnson has finished 39th, 27th, 31st, 35th, and this season, 27th in NASCAR’s biggest race.

Maybe it’s because the 48 focuses more on the Chase and winning the championship than anything else, but you get the sense that doing well in the 500 isn’t of grave importance as it is to some other teams. Plus, it’s hard to argue with an approach that has won him the last five championships.

Nonetheless, it would be nice if Johnson would come to Daytona and make his presence felt from the Shootout to the Duels to the 500. But as we saw this year, with a lot of big names running into problems, that’s always easier said than done.

►As we saw last season when Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished second, a strong performance in the 500 doesn’t necessarily equate to NASCAR’s most popular driver having a good year, as he slumped to a 21st in the yearend standings.

But finishing 24th like Earnhardt did, can be a double punch to the stomach for the 88 team. This team is going to need all the points it can get if it wants to qualify for the Chase. When they don’t score a top-10 finish at Daytona, a track where they’re expected to contend, it puts them in a hole that’s going to be awfully tough to dig out of with how Earnhardt has performed as of late on the intermediate tracks.

If there is good news involving Dale Earnhardt Jr., it’s that his relationship with new crew chief Steve Letarte appears to be coming together. Letarte has quickly injected some much-needed confidence into his driver, as was evident in listening to radio conversations between the two.

When Earnhardt crashed in last Wednesday’s practice and destroyed his primary car for the 500, Letarte was on the radio immediately telling Earnhardt that their backup was just as fast and there was no need to worry, and that they would be strong on Sunday. Which proved to be correct as the 88 quickly sped to the front and was in contention for the win before another accident ended their day prematurely.

Although it’s early and things won’t change if a turnaround isn’t forthcoming, the relationship between driver and crew chief is a far cry from what we’ve heard the last two seasons between when Earnhardt was terse and combative with former crew chiefs Tony Eury Jr., and Lance McGrew.

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