Coca-Cola 600 Preview

05/29/2011 By Leave a Comment

What: Coca-Cola 600
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
(1.5-mile oval)
Distance: 400 laps/600 miles
Green Flag: 6:15 PM (ET)
TV: Fox
Defending Winner: Kurt Busch

Storylines To Follow

From The Light Into The Night
The Coca-Cola 600 is unique unto itself. Not only is it the longest race of the 36 Sprint Cup Series runs each year, it’s also one of the most challenging. When the green flag drops today the sun will be out, but 600 miles later when the checkered flag waves, the race will complete under the darkness of night. In-between, the 1.5-mile oval will undergo a transformation as the track temperatures decreases and rubber collects on the surface. As such, crew chiefs will have their work cut out for them to keep up with the ever-changing track conditions. It’s a common occurrence to see drivers that were strong early on slide towards the back as the laps click by, and conversely, drivers who were struggling in the daylight get stronger once the sun sets.

Back-To-Back Back Flips
A week after his convincing win in NASCAR’s annual non-points showcase, known as the All-Star Race, Carl Edwards enters the weekend looking to complete the Charlotte sweep. Although he’ll be driving a different car than the one he drove last Saturday, thanks to an ill-advised trip through the infield. The points leader has shown no signs of letting up, posting the second-quickest speed in Thursday’s lone practice session, then backing that up by qualifying third.

Starting Up Front and Looking To Say There
There are a few drivers starting up near the front today that need a good finish to either turnaround their once promising season or to jumpstart what to date has been a year filled with disappointment and mediocre results. Among them are polesitter Brad Keselowski, the guy starting next to him on the front row, AJ Allmendinger, Jeff Burton who will lineup fifth and David Reutimann, who will start seventh.

Tires and Track Position
As we’ve seen the last few weeks, track position is everything when it comes to winning. The majority of the time track position is directly related to how many tires you get when you hit pit road. At Darlington during a caution with less than 10 laps to go, Regan Smith stayed out while everyone ahead of him pitted. The next week at Dover, Matt Kenseth, who was running fifth at the time, took two tires with 34 laps to go and jumped to atop the leader board. Due to clean air and no traffic, the 2003 Sprint Cup champion drove away for his second win of 2011.

The game has changed in NASCAR, and taking two tires, or any tires for that matter, is no longer a given. It’s a situation that’s thrown crew chiefs for a loop. Most notably, Chad Knaus, who strongly adheres to the principle that if you have the opportunity to put four fresh Goodyear’s on your car, you do. Except that strategy is no longer the right one and it likely won’t be the winning one tonight.

Worth Noting

● Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be making his Sprint Cup debut driving in place of the still recovering Trevor Bayne. Stenhouse qualified the Wood Brothers Ford in the ninth position.

● Casey Mears, Bobby Labonte, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and David Reutimann all picked up their first career win in NASCAR’s longest race. For Mears it was his only Sprint Cup victory to date.

● Carl Edwards is looking to become the ninth driver to pull off the All-Star Race/Coca-Cola 600 sweep. The eight guys that have accomplished the feat are Darrell Waltrip (1985), Davey Allison (1991), Dale Earnhardt (1993), Jeff Gordon (1997), Jimmie Johnson (2003), Kasey Kahne 2008, and Kurt Busch (2010).

● After repeatedly chastising his crew the last few weeks, Kurt Busch has promised to be more polite towards them on the radio. I give it 30 laps before Busch breaks his promise, cues up the radio and starts to vent about the lack of speed in his Pennzoil Dodge.

Charlotte Motor Speedway Track Records (Active)

Driver Wins: Jimmie Johnson (6)

Owner Wins: Hendrick Motorsports (16)

Manufacturer Wins: Chevrolet (38)

Average Finish: Joey Logano (8.5)

Laps Led: Jimmie Johnson (1,386)

Top-5s: Mark Martin (18)

Top-10s: Mark Martin (23)

Contenders

1. Carl Edwards
After his memorable post-race celebration that destroyed the frontend of his Ford Fusion, Carl Edwards will be piloting a different car in the 600. But according to Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne, the car they’ve brought to the track is as good as the one that won the All-Star Race in dominant fashion. Judging by how fast they were in Thursday’s practice, it’s hard to argue with them.

2. Kyle Busch
Although Kyle Busch finished runner-up to Edwards in the All-Star Race, crew chief Dave Rogers elected to bring a different chassis to the track this weekend. The reason I like Busch to run well tonight is he’ll be driving the same car he raced at Texas. That night he ran in the top-five all race before a loose wheel and a subsequent unscheduled pit stop saw him finish in the 16th position. Good driver + Good car = Good shot to get win number three on the year.

3. Jimmie Johnson
There was a time when Charlotte Motor Speedway was known as the house that Jimmie built. That time however has come and gone and he’s no longer regarded as the heavy favorite like he once was, the five-time defending champ and six-time Charlotte winner is still more than formidable.

Sleeper

David Reutimann
The same car David Reutimann will be wheeling today is the same one he drove to a third-place finish last Saturday night. What bodes well for “The Franchise’s” chances tonight is that car was at its best during long green-flag runs, which are a regular occurrence during the course of the 600-mile marathon. If this race stays green in the latter stages, it could play right into his wheelhouse. Also note, Reutimann was fastest in yesterday’s final practice.

The Official Racing Geek Pick

You can’t ignore the fact that Jack Roush owned cars have clearly been superior this year on mile-and-a-half tracks. Carl Edwards took the checkered flag at Las Vegas, Matt Kenseth went to the winner’s circle at Texas, and last weekend they winning everything there was to win, highlighted by Edwards’ dominate victory.

I see no reason to think the Roush Armada won’t again be strong tonight with Edwards, Kenseth and Greg Biffle all having a legitimate shot at leaving with the hardware. Heck who knows, maybe even David Ragan will come out of leftfield and be the next driver in a long line of them who scored their first career win in the 600?

But because he’s the points leader and out of respect for how consistently fast he’s been just about every week this season, my pick to win tonight is Carl Edwards.

 

 

If you would like to contact the author of this post, simply click here, and you can also follow The Racing Geek on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Filed Under: Charlotte, Contenders and Sleepers, NASCAR, Preview

FedEx 400 Preview

05/15/2011 By Leave a Comment

What: FedEx 400 Benefitting Autism Speaks
Where: Dover International Speedway
(1- mile high-banked concrete oval)
Distance: 400 laps/400 miles
Green Flag: 1:15 PM (ET)
TV: Fox
Defending Winner: Kyle Busch

Storylines To Follow

Kyle vs. Kevin, Kevin vs. Kyle
All eyes this weekend, and really for the next three weeks after, will be on Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch as they deal with the fallout from last Saturday’s festivities

Harvick said in his Friday press conference, that being placed on probation for four races will definitely affect how he drives. Imagine for a moment if either he or Busch has a bobble on the track that sends them into another car, which then wrecks. While the slip may be nothing more than an accident, it’s possible NASCAR wouldn’t see it that way and could take the move as a violation of their probation. If that were to happen, the consequences could be dire.

Dale Jr. Looking for a Bounce Back
After consecutive weeks where the 88 team squandered likely top-10 finishes, first at Richmond due to poor fuel mileage, then last week at Darlington where Dale Earnhardt Jr. received a pit road commitment penalty. Dover looms as a place where they need to get the wheels back on the proverbial track. Helping matters is the team meeting Dale Earnhardt called earlier this week where he apologized for his costly gaffe. All the particulars involved say they’ve moved on and they’re ready to refocus on getting their driver back to victory lane for the first time in nearly three years.

Denny Hamlin Rounding Into Form
With back-to-back top-10s, it appears Denny Hamlin has righted the ship after a listless start to 2011. Although he’s still a long way from the form which won him eight races a year ago, he’s certainly a lot closer to finding it than he’s been at any point this year. The bad news for him is that Dover, up until last year, has been his own personal house of horrors. At one point things were so bad; Hamlin had a five race stretch where he finished no better than 22nd. But last year this team committed itself to finding a way to tame the Monster Mile, and the results saw them posting top-10 finishes in both races. If they can continue that success Sunday, you have to like this team’s chances heading into the summer months on the strength of three straight top-10s.

Last Chance
There are a host of big names still not locked into next week’s All-Star Race. Among them are the aforementioned Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Brian Vickers, Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. Unless they come away with a win tomorrow (unlikely), they’re going to have to jump through a variety of hoops if they want to race in NASCAR’s annual non-points showdown, with the winner receiving a cool $1 mil.

Worth Noting

● With another win, Jimmie Johnson will tie Bobby Allison and Richard Petty with a track-best seven victories.

● 82 times the Sprint Cup Series has raced on the one-mile concrete oval, but only twice has a driver scored their first Cup victory. The first driver to do so was Jody Ridley in 1981 driving for longtime NASCAR car owner Junie Donlavey. The second was Martin Truex Jr., who scored a dominating win in the spring event of 2007.

Dover International Speedway Track Records (Active)

Driver Wins: Jimmie Johnson (6)

Owner Wins: Hendrick Motorsports (13)

Manufacturer Wins: Chevrolet (31)

Average Finish: Carl Edwards (7.7)

Laps Led: Jeff Gordon (2,231)

Top-5s: Mark Martin (22)

Top-10s: Mark Martin (30)

Contenders

1. Jimmie Johnson
Not only did Jimmie Johnson post the quickest lap in first practice, he also had the fastest 10-lap average. Which at Dover where long green flag runs often rule the day, is a good indicator that the 48 has hit on a setup that should make them competitive tomorrow. Also helping matters is the fact Johnson has bested the Monster Mile six times, including a win last fall when he led a race-high 191 laps. Altogether, he’s won three of the last four Dover races and has led the most laps in each.

2. Kyle Busch
If it weren’t for an engine change Friday that necessitates he starts in the back tomorrow, Kyle Busch, who won this race a year ago, would have been my No. 1 contender. Although it’s not unheard of for a driver to start in the back and then go on to win at Dover. So if Busch can avoid any potential calamity Sunday as he’s working his way towards the front, it’s more than realistic for him to be contending for his third Dover win in his last seven starts.

3. AJ Allmendinger
Wait a second, why isn’t Carl Edwards or Kevin Harvick occupying this spot? Or even Greg Biffle or Denny Hamlin for that matter? No, it isn’t just because I’m a fanboy of AJ Allmendinger. It’s because last fall in this race it was the driver of the No. 43 car owned by Richard Petty who dominated. That day the ‘Dinger led 143 laps, and would have been in contention for his first Cup victory if it hadn’t been for a bungled pit stop midway through. Starting on the outside pole tomorrow thanks to posting the second fastest lap in practice, the FedEx 400 represents as good of chance as any of getting that maiden NASCAR win.

Sleeper

Ryan Newman
This may be going outside the definition of a sleeper considering Ryan Newman is sixth in points. Nevertheless, in my mind he qualifies based on the fact that not many are talking about the three-time Dover winner despite the solid year he’s turned in at this point, and his prior success on the high-banked oval.

The Official Racing Geek Pick

With everything that’s transpired in the last week, now seems like a good time to take a trip down memory lane.

Last fall when the series rolled into Dover, everyone was fixated on the fallout from the race the week before at New Hampshire, as well as the war of words that erupted between the Richard Childress and Joe Gibbs camps. It was at New Hampshire if you remember where Clint Bowyer won with a car that would later be deemed illegal in post-race inspection.

As accusations were levied and payback extracted, sitting outside the fray was Jimmie Johnson. Who just sat back and smiled, knowing that while his chief rivals were focused on trivial matters, the 48 crew was focused on fine-tuning their eventual race-winning machine.

With all that’s gone on this past week, and with the spotlight firmly affixed to two cars (If you don’t know who they are, I don’t know why you’re reading this column), Johnson again finds himself in the catbird seat. On a track where he’s won more than any other active driver, that makes him the man to beat on Sunday and my pick to win this week.

 

 

If you would like to contact the author of this post, simply click here, and you can also follow The Racing Geek on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Filed Under: Contenders and Sleepers, Dover, NASCAR, Preview

Samsung Mobile 500 Preview

04/09/2011 By Leave a Comment

What: Samsung Mobile 500
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
(1.5- mile oval)
Distance: 334 laps/501 miles
Green Flag: 7:45 PM (ET)
TV: Fox
Defending Winner: Denny Hamlin

Storylines To Follow

A Texas Three-step For Denny Hamlin
Coming off a disappointing Martinsville, where poor fuel mileage and sloppy pit work combined to sink any chance of winning or even posting a respectable finish, Denny Hamlin will be looking to put last week’s frustration behind him on a track where he swept both races in 2010. But unlike last year, he rolls into Fort Worth with zero momentum and is still looking for the mojo that rode shotgun with him for most of his season a year ago.

Hamlin said yesterday it’s not time to panic and that he expects to be in the top-10 in points within the next seven-to-eight weeks. Whether that’s realistic or merely wishful thinking remains to be seen. I do know however, that a good run tonight will go a long way to dictating what kind of season the FedEx team will have the rest of the way.

Joe Gibbs Racing and Their Suspect Engines
For the first time all season, Joe Gibbs Racing made it through an entire weekend without an engine failure. But the true test as to whether JGR has solved their engine dilemma which has plagued their season will come this weekend. There may be no track on the circuit that’s tougher on engines than Texas, where high speeds and high RPMs rule the day. Engine failures are a common occurrence and until JGR proves their engines can run an entire race distance on a track like Texas, the doubt will continue to linger.

The Continued Saga of Whether Dale Earnhardt Jr. Is Indeed Back
Coming off his best finish in over a year and a finish which jumped him up four spots in the standings to eighth, Dale Earnhardt Jr. comes into Texas looking to keep the good vibration freight train chugging along. Although expecting him to snap his 99-race winless streak may be a bit too much, another solid finish somewhere in the top-10 is certainly not unreasonable, as in this race last year, Earnhardt led six times for 46 laps. Of course, I’d be remiss if I didn’t remind everyone that Texas was the site of his first Sprint Cup win.

It’s Not Time To Hit The Panic Button, But It Is Time To Locate It
Six races into the season isn’t time to panic – yet. There are still 20 races left in the regular season and with the new wildcard format which grants a Chase berth to the two drivers 11-20 in points who have won the most races, drivers and teams have a bit more leeway than in past years.

That being said, the aforementioned Denny Hamlin (19th in points), Greg Biffle (20th), Jamie McMurray (23rd), Joey Logano (27th) and Jeff Burton (28th) all need to start showing some serious signs of life if they’re to turnaround their respective seasons and contend for the Chase like each was expected to do.

Worth Noting

● Two drivers, Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhardt Jr., have recorded their first career Sprint Cup victory on the mile-and-a-half track.

● Don’t fret too much if your favorite driver is starting deep in the field. Four times in 20 races, an eventual victor has started 29th or worse. Most recently Denny Hamlin, who in pulling the Texas sweep a year ago, lined up on the grid 29th and 30th.

● Although this won’t be the first time a Texas Sprint Cup race will start in the day and race into the night, it will be the first time the spring race will finish in the evening. Tonight’s race also marks the first Saturday night race in the track’s 15-year history.

● Robby Gordon has raced at Texas 15 times in his Cup career, yet has never finished a race on the lead lap.

Texas Motor Speedway Track Records (Active)

Driver Wins: Carl Edwards (3)

Owner Wins: Roush Fenway Racing (7)

Manufacturer Wins: Ford (9)

Average Finish: Denny Hamlin (8.8)

Laps Led: Greg Biffle (612)

Top-5s: Matt Kenseth (8)

Top-10s: Mark Martin (12)

Contenders

1. Carl Edwards
All-time Texas Motor Speedway wins leader: Check
Drives for an owner who always fields fast cars at Texas: Check
Has won a race this season and has been quick on just about every kind of track: Check

2. Kyle Busch
Statistically Texas isn’t one the better tracks for Kyle Busch. It’s one of eight venues where he’s yet to win a Cup race, has only five top-10s in 12 career starts and owns a pedestrian average finish of 16.2. But you know what? Stats don’t mean everything.

Two weeks ago at Fontana, the No. 18 Toyota was the class of the field until a late caution allowed the competition to catch back up. That third-place run went a long way to proving the intermediate track program, which was once an area of concern for this team, is now an area of strength. That strength will be on full display tonight.

3. Matt Kenseth
The former winner of this race (2003) enters the weekend on a bit of a hot streak, with three consecutive finishes of sixth or better. Speaking of streaking, in his past eight starts on Texas high-banks, Matt Kenseth has finished ninth or better seven times.

Sleeper

Paul Menard
A friend of mine suggested going with today’s polesitter, David Ragan. But after I pick myself up off the floor, I think he realized that maybe that wasn’t the best of ideas. Instead, I’m going to side with one of the more pleasant surprises of 2011 and give the nod to the driver who in yesterday’s final practice, posted the second-best 10- consecutive lap average. With tonight’s race likely seeing a lot of long green flag runs, this bodes well for Paul Menard’s chances of leaving the Lone Star State with top-10 finish.

The Official Racing Geek Pick

All day yesterday I flip-flopped as to who my pick would be. Eventually I whittled it down to Carl Edwards or Matt Kenseth, with Kenseth the leader in the clubhouse. Then I thought I would tab Roush Fenway Racing as my winner to cover all my bases. Sadly though, I think that would defeat the purpose of making a prediction each week.

So after mulling it over a bit more, I decided against going with Kenseth. I just have a hard time going with a driver who hasn’t won a race in two-plus years. Especially so, when the guy I would be picking against would be Edwards, who has shown to be a threat to win in just about every race this season.

All that being said, and a rambling paragraph later, Carl Edwards is my pick to win. But if he doesn’t win and another Roush car finds its way to victory lane, I’m not above claiming I was right all along.

Filed Under: Contenders and Sleepers, NASCAR, Preview, Texas

Goody’s Fast Relief 500 Preview

04/03/2011 By 1 Comment

What: Goody’s Fast Relief 500
Where: Martinsville Speedway
(.526- mile oval)
Distance: 500 laps/263 miles
Green Flag: 1:13 PM (ET)
TV: Fox
Defending Winner: Denny Hamlin

Storylines To Follow

Jamie McMurray and His Quest For A Good Finish
Last year was a dream season for today’s polesitter Jamie McMurray, with wins in the Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 along with a win at Charlotte in the fall. But as good as 2010 was, 2011 has been just as bad. While he’s had fast cars most weeks, the finishes haven’t been there for the Earnhardt-Ganassi driver, whose best finish this season has been 18th at Daytona. As a result, he finds himself 28th in points and is facing a monumental task if he wants to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup for the first time in his career. Starting first today, in a race where track position looks to be everything, this could be the catalyst McMurray needs to right the ship.

Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson vs. The Field
Combined, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson have won the last nine races on the giant paperclip. Knowing this, there isn’t a driver in the garage who isn’t aware that to win today, they’re likely going to have to go through one, if not both drivers.

The Three Short Track Maestros, Hamlin, Johnson and Kyle
It’s 16 races and counting since one of these three drivers have won a Sprint Cup race held on a short track. Do any of the other 40 cars in the field have anything for these three today? Can this trio be toppled this afternoon? The answer to both of these questions is of course, as both Kevin Harvick and the two Stewart-Haas cars look like possible race winners. But it won’t be easy, and it’s going take a bit of luck for a driver to end the streak.

Joe Gibbs Racing and Their Engine Woes
As it’s been documented by me and others, Joe Gibbs Racing has had a problem of some sorts with one of their engines in every race this year. An issue that’s hampered, and some would say crippled, the seasons of Denny Hamlin and Joey Loganao.

While engine failures at Martinsville are rare, they do happen. Especially if a driver pushes in the nose of their car after contact with another driver; something that frequently happens on the half-mile track. If that were to happen to one of the three JGR cars, it’s not too farfetched to think the lack of fresh air to cool the engine would result in yet another failure.

Tires
Like they were at Bristol before a change was necessitated, tires are a concern this weekend. During practice on Friday, the tire Goodyear brought was putting almost zero rubber down on the racetrack, and instead was chunking up in balls on the upper half of the speedway. After 15 laps, many a driver has said that their tires go completely away and it would surprise no one if there’s a rash of failures today. In fact you can expect it. With this being a one groove racetrack, today is going to be about survival and just trying to get to the last 50 laps with a car in one piece.

Worth Noting

● Coming into this race last year Denny Hamlin was 19th in points. This year he’s 21st and is looking for a repeat of a year ago, when he won and then went on to win four of the next nine races.

● With another Martinsville victory, Rick Hendrick will tie Petty Enterprises for most wins, 19, on the legendary bullring.

● Good news for Jamie McMurray, as two of the last five races here have been won from the pole. The farthest back an eventual winner started was 36th (Kurt Busch, 2002)

● Since joining Penske Racing in 2006, Kurt Busch hasn’t posted a top-10 finish at Martinsville, a span of 10 races.

Martinsville Speedway Track Records (Active)

Driver Wins: Jeff Gordon (7)

Owner Wins: Richard Petty Motorsports/Petty Enterprises (19)

Manufacturer Wins: Chevrolet (46)

Average Finish: Jimmie Johnson (5.3)

Laps Led: Jeff Gordon (2,944)

Top-5s: Jeff Gordon (23)

Top-10s: Jeff Gordon (29)

Contenders

1. Denny Hamlin
All you need to know about Denny Hamlin at Martinsville is this: He’s won three consecutive races, four of six overall and hasn’t finished worse than sixth in nine straight starts.

2. Jimmie Johnson
While Hamlin has been the man as of late, let’s not forget how good Jimmie Johnson has been at Martinsville. In 18 career starts, he has six wins to his name, 17 top-10s, 13 top-fives and a stellar average finish of 5.3.

3. Kyle Busch
Although Kyle Busch doesn’t have a Grandfather Clock in his collection like the two guys above him, don’t think he’s not formidable at Martinsville, because he is. A year ago in this race, he had perhaps the fastest car on the track and looked like he was headed to victory lane, but a flat late cost him any chance for the ‘W.’ If someone is going to beat dynamic duo of Hamlin and Johnson, my money is on Kyle Busch.

Sleeper

Joey Logano
If you’re looking for a sleeper, you can’t do much better than the guy who lines up fourth today and in four Martinsville starts, has a pair of top-10 finishes, including a runner-up last year in this race. This is assuming of course his engine stays running. Which is no given.

The Official Racing Geek Pick

Indisputably, the clear-cut favorite today is Denny Hamlin, followed closely by Jimmie Johnson. But picking either of those two, seems, a bit, well too easy. Instead, I’ll hitch my wagon to Kyle Busch.

On a day when there’s uncertainty about tires and their durability, it appears that with only one groove, it’s going to take a heavy bumper to make your way through traffic. Give me the driver who showed patience in winning at Bristol two weeks ago and never has been shy about using his bumper to uproot a fellow driver.

Yes, Hamlin and Johnson will be strong today, and it’s a given they will have a say in the outcome, but eventually their stranglehold is going to come to an end. Today is that day.

 

If you would like to contact the author of this post, simply click here, and you can also follow The Racing Geek on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Filed Under: Contenders and Sleepers, Martinsville, NASCAR, Preview

Auto Club 400 Preview

03/27/2011 By Leave a Comment

What: Auto Club 400
Where: Auto Club Speedway
(2- mile D-shaped oval)
Distance: 200 laps/400 miles
Green Flag: 3:16 PM (ET)
TV: Fox
Defending Winner: Jimmie Johnson

Storylines To Follow

Kyle Busch and The Cookie-Cutters
There’s no denying last week’s winner Kyle Busch is one of the more talented drivers in the NASCAR garage. That being said, it’s been 73-races (Las Vegas, 2009) since Busch has won on a track larger than a mile. While I’m not saying he hasn’t ran well on cookie-cutter type tracks, because he has, but considering intermediate tracks make up the bulk of the Sprint Cup schedule and the fact it’s been two-plus years since his last win, this has to be an area of concern for the 18 team.

With Auto Club Speedway resembling a lot of the style of tracks we’ll see in the Chase, a strong run Sunday would go a long way to showing the 18 team is a legit contender everywhere and not just at Bristol, Richmond and Dover. Three tracks where almost half of Busch’s 20 Cup victories have come.

Adding to the drama is Friday’s lone practice session, Busch wrecked his primary car and will be forced to start today’s race in a backup car. The good news is, the backup is the same car he drove last October at Charlotte, when he led 217 laps and finished second to Jamie McMurray.

Gauging the 48
Auto Club Speedway has always been a track Jimmie Johnson has owned. It was the site of his first Sprint Cup victoryand four others after that, and he has an absolutely stellar average finishing position of 5.3. As such, every time the series comes here, the 48 is without question, the car to beat.

But seeing the 48 up front is not a given today. Three weeks ago in Las Vegas, on a similar style track, the five-time defending champs were noticeably off the mark. They struggled all weekend to find speed and never were able to get a handle on their Chevrolet. Crew chief Chad Knaus said there’s no concern as Hendrick Motorsports, as a whole, is experimenting with some different chassis combinations and trying to fine-tune what works best with the new nose that NASCAR mandated over the offseason.

If Johnson and his team struggle this weekend, you’ll know something is amiss with his team. But, if this afternoon it’s business as usual and the 48 bunch is leading laps and fighting for the win, we’ll know it’s only a matter of time before they’re back to their dominating self’s.

Ford vs. Chevy
The common perception is this is a Ford dominated track. That however is not necessarily true, as Chevrolet has as many wins, 10, on the two-mile Southern California track as their archrivals with the blue oval on their hoods. Not to mention the Bowtie Brigade has won the past three Fontana events, and five of the past seven overall.

Can Jeff Gordon Get On Track?
His win at Phoenix was supposed to represent a breakthrough of sorts for Jeff Gordon. Instead, that victory is starting to resemble a fleeting moment of glory in an otherwise disappointing season, as the 83-race winner has finished 28th, 36th and 14th in the other three races. Not exactly numbers that speak of a team poised for big things. Does Fontana represent a turnaround or will it be more mediocrity from the four-time champ?

Fans In The Stands
It has no bearing on what’s going to transpire on the racetrack, but the number of fans in the grandstands will be one of the more closely followed stories today. Before they had two races on the Sprint Cup schedule, Fontana was one of the more well-attended events on the circuit. Except after NASCAR awarded the Southern California speed plant with a second date, attendance waned to the point NASCAR was forced last year to move the speedway’s second race to Kansas. Will the “less is more” philosophy equate to more spectators or will fans continue to disguise themselves as empty seats?

Worth Noting

● Auto Club Speedway is where both Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch notched their first career Sprint Cup wins.

●Despite having two wins in NASCAR’s premiere series to his name, polesitter Juan Pablo Montoya is still looking for his first oval win driving a stockcar. Not working in Montoya’s favor today, is in 21 races at Auto Club Speedway, only one race has been won from the pole.

●Dating back to last year, Regan Smith hasn’t started worse than 12th in his last eight races. The 2008 Rookie of the Year will start fourth this afternoon.

Auto Club Speedway Track Records (Active)

Driver Wins: Jimmie Johnson (5)

Owner Wins: Hendrick Motorsports (9)

Manufacturer Wins: Chevrolet, Ford (10)

Average Finish: Jimmie Johnson (5.3)

Laps Led: Jimmie Johnson (846)

Top-5s: Jimmie Johnson (11)

Top-10s: Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth (12)

Contenders

1. Tony Stewart
In Las Vegas it was Tony Stewart and not Carl Edwards who had the car to beat. But a miscue on a pit stop led to a late-race gamble on two-tires that backfired when Stewart wasn’t able to catch Edwards, who had taken four tires. Although Stewart won’t be pedaling the same car he had in Vegas, he will have underneath him the same car he drove to a win here last October.

2. Carl Edwards
No driver is hotter than the driver who has recorded a win and two seconds in four races this season. With Auto Club Speedway being a track where Edwards generally excels – he has a win, 10 top-10 finishes in 13 career starts and an average finish of 9.3 – a good case could be made that the he enters today as the prohibitive favorite.

3. Jimmie Johnson
While what we saw in Las Vegas was a bit disconcerting, Jimmie Johnson’s track-record on his home track is impeccable. In 16 starts, he’s posted a track-best five wins, 11 top-fives, 12 top-10s and he hasn’t finished worse than 11th since the fall race here in 2005. Oh, and let’s not forget his average finish of 5.3, which is simply staggering.

Sleeper

Kasey Kahne
Since their inception, this has been a track where Team Red Bull Racing has excelled. With Kasey Kahne behind the wheel, a former winner at Auto Club Speedway in 2006, if you add the two together, there’s little reason not to expect good things to happen on raceday.

The Official Racing Geek Pick

From outward appearances, the Auto Club 400 appears to be a fairly wide-open race with no clear-cut winner. A case could be made for any number of drivers in the field from Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch to Mark Martin and Carl Edwards to be standing in the winners circle at the end of 400 miles.

But at the end of the day it will be Carl Edwards standing tall in victory lane celebrating his second win of 2011. Since unloading Friday morning, the 99 car has gotten steadily better in each practice, and when you factor in the momentum Edwards is riding into the fifth race of the year, he seems like the safest bet in a race lacking a heavy favorite.

 

If you would like to contact the author of this post, simply click here, and you can also follow The Racing Geek on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Filed Under: Auto Club Speedway, Contenders and Sleepers, NASCAR, Preview

Jeff Byrd 500 Preview

03/20/2011 By 2 Comments

What: Jeff Byrd 500 
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
(0.533- mile concrete oval)
Distance: 500 laps/400.5 miles
Green Flag: 1:13 PM (ET)
TV: Fox
Defending Winner: Jimmie Johnson

Storylines To Follow

Tires, Tires and Tires
The tire Goodyear originally brought to Bristol was so problematic and wore so quickly on Friday, a handful of drivers even went as far to compare the tire to the one used at Indianapolis in 2008. If you don’t remember, on that day NASCAR was forced to throw a caution every 10-15 laps for fear of tires exploding due to excessive wear.

Back to this weekend, to fix the issue that arose Friday, Goodyear along with NASCAR made the call Friday afternoon to switch to a different right-side compound prior to practice on Saturday. The end result saw teams scrambling trying to setup their car for a tire they weren’t expected to run.  

All of which means drivers and crew chiefs are going to have their work cutout trying to get a handle on their respective cars. Just because a car is fast in the early stages of today’s race, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to be quick in the closing stages. And don’t rule out a driver who’s struggling in the first half of the 500-lap race, to find the handle of his car as the race moves along and to be racing with the leaders late. There’s going to be a lot of ebb and flow, and the teams who have the most success will be the ones who can, pardon the pun, come to grips with the new tire compound the best.

Carl Edwards Gunning For Two-In-A-Row
An off-week has done nothing to cool off Carl Edwards. Two weeks after winning in Las Vegas, he sped to the pole Friday in qualifying. And Bristol has been a good track for Edwards, as he’s won here twice, finished sixth in this race a year ago and has an average finish of 13.3 in 13 career starts.

A Hendrick Rebound?
Yes, Jeff Gordon won at Phoenix, and yes, it’s still early in the season, but outside of Gordon’s sentimental victory, success has been fleeting for Hendrick Motorsports three races into 2011. None of the four Hendrick cars are better than 10th in the standings, and compared to the Fords, Hendrick’s engines seem down on horsepower. A solid day this afternoon would go a long way to reestablishing Hendrick as the team to beat this year, but with as good as the Fords have looked, that will be anything but easy.

Busch Brothers
With uncertainty looming in the garage due to the swap in tires, you have to figure the drivers who’ve had the most success at Bristol will likely be the ones to make their way to the front by race end.  

Applying that theory, look for Kurt and Kyle Busch to be among the guys to beat this afternoon. Between them, they have a combined nine victories in Thunder Valley, with Kyle having won three of the last four Bristol races. There may be uncertainty about the tires, there is little doubt the Busch Brothers know the fast way around Bristol.

Worth Noting

●Kurt Busch is the only driver to have finished every race this season in the top-10.

●In 16 trips to Bristol, Greg Biffle has yet to visit victory lane. That however hasn’t stopped him from posting an average finish of 10.8, which is good enough for second-best, trailing only Kyle Busch (9.3).

●22 times the eventual race winner has come from the No. 1 starting position.

Bristol Motor Speedway Track Records (Active)

Driver Wins: Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch (5)
Owner Wins: Roush Fenway Racing (10)
Manufacturer Wins: Chevrolet (42)
Average Finish: Kyle Busch (9.3)
Laps Led: Jeff Gordon (2,440)
Top-5s: Terry Labonte (19)
Top-10s: Terry Labonte (33)

Contenders

1. Kyle Busch
With three wins in his last four Bristol starts, it’s easy to determine who’s the clear-cut favorite entering today’s running of the Jeff Byrd 500.

2. Carl Edwards
Starting up front is always a good thing, but even more so at Bristol than any other track on the circuit. Starting first on the bowl-shaped track is something today’s polesitter, Carl Edwards, has proven he’s capable of doing.   He won the August night race here in 2008 after setting fast time in qualifying.

3. Jimmie Johnson
A year ago, taking four tires on his final pit stop propelled Jimmie Johnson to his first Bristol win. On a day when finding the handle of your car is going to be at a premium, you have to think the five-time defending Sprint Cup champion will be among the first to figure out the new tire.

Sleeper

Greg Biffle
Not normally a name you associate with success at Bristol. But despite never having won on “The World’s Fastest Half-Mile,” over the years few drivers have been better than Greg Biffle. He has ten top-10s in 16 starts, has finished eighth, fourth and fourth in his last three Bristol races, and as noted above, has the second-best average finish (10.8).

The Official Racing Geek Pick

Dating back to last year, Kyle Busch has won four consecutive races, be it in the Truck, Nationwide or Sprint Cup Series’. In yesterday’s Nationwide event, where a new tire was introduced 25 laps into the race, the talented Joe Gibbs driver had no problem asserting his dominance. He lead every lap but 32 in the 300-lap race, and won handedly for the second time this season in NASCAR’s junior series.

There’s no reason to think Busch and his Dave Rogers led team won’t have the same success today working with a tire they’ve had little practice on. He might not be the quickest early, but by race’s end, Busch’s Toyota will be in the same position it frequently resides anytime the series comes to Bristol – up front and on its way to victory lane.

 

If you would like to contact the author of this post, simply click here, and you can also follow The Racing Geek on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Filed Under: Bristol, Contenders and Sleepers, NASCAR, Preview

Kobalt Tools 400 Preview

03/06/2011 By Leave a Comment

What: Kobalt Tools 400
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway (1.5-mile oval)
Distance: 267 laps/400.5 miles
Green Flag: 3:14 PM (ET)
TV: Fox
Defending Winner: Jimmie Johnson

Storylines To Follow

Does The House Win Again?
In Vegas, the house almost always wins. When it comes to racing in Sin City, Jimmie Johnson, who’s won more races than anyone else on the mile-and-a-half track, represents the house. Yes, the Blue Oval Brigade has dominated practice and qualifying, but judging from recent history, you have to think the 48 is going to be in the mix for the victory tomorrow.

Can Jeff Gordon Pull A Carl Edwards?
After Carl Edwards snapped his long winless streak at Phoenix last year, he came back the next week to win at Homestead. A week ago Sunday, Jeff Gordon saw his 66-race winless streak come to an end with a convincing win on the same track where Edwards snapped his. With Gordon having led 219 laps in this race last year and finishing a close second to Jimmie Johnson, posting back-to-back victories isn’t out of the question for the driver who’s won 83 Sprint Cup races in his career.

First Edwards, Then Gordon, Now Who?
As a follow-up to the above, who will be the next driver to snap their lengthy winless drought? And will it happen tomorrow? Perhaps Dale Earnhardt Jr. (95 races and counting), Jeff Burton (79), or maybe polesitter Matt Kenseth (72) who will be the next to breakthrough?

Drivers Needing A Bounce Back
Jeff Burton (32nd in points), Greg Biffle (28th), Jamie McMurray (26th) and Clint Bowyer (20th) are just a few of the drivers who are desperately in need of a good run Sunday. Collectively, the aforementioned driver’s best finish two races into the year, is Bowyer’s 17th-place showing at Daytona. And all are on the verge of being in a hole they might not be able to climb out.

A Ford Runaway in the Works
With a track-best six victories, Las Vegas has always been a good track for Ford. After dominating practice on Friday, then sweeping the top four spots in qualifying and six of the top-10, it looks like Ford is, without question, the manufacturer to beat tomorrow.

Worth Noting

●When the green flag flies tomorrow, it will be Mark Martin’s 1052nd NASCAR start, which will place him second on the all-time list, trailing only Richard Petty by 113 races.

●Kyle Busch is the only driver to have won this race from the pole. But it does come with a bit of an asterisk, as Busch was forced to start in the back due to an engine change between practice and the race.

●Unlike his brother, Kurt Busch has never had much success on his home track. In 10 career starts, he’s recorded only two top-10 finishes, and since joining Penske Racing, hasn’t finished better than 16th.

●Never known as a great qualifier, Friday’s pole was just the fifth for Matt Kenseth in what is his 12th full season racing in NASCAR’s premiere series.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Track Records (Active)

Driver Wins: Jimmie Johnson (4)

Owner Wins: Roush Fenway Racing (6)

Manufacturer Wins: Ford (6)

Average Finish: Jimmie Johnson (10.0)

Laps Led: Jeff Gordon (453)

Top-5s: Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon (6)

Top-10s: Mark Martin (10)

Contenders

1. Carl Edwards
Despite having won here previously (2008), LVMS has never been a track where Carl Edwards has excelled. So why is he my No. 1 contender? In part, because no other Ford has consistently been as fast as the No. 99 car. Additionally, Edwards has had a winning racecar the past two weeks and it’s only a matter of when, and not if, he finally puts everything together. Why not this weekend?

2. Kyle Busch
Thanks to back-to-back top-10s to start the year, which has placed him atop the points, the Las Vegas native was already going to be on the short list of favorites. He’s reinforced that belief by being quick in every practice and clocking in the fifth-fastest time in qualifying. Let’s also not forget he’s a former winner here, having won the 2009 edition of this race.

3. Jimmie Johnson
The five-time defending series champion gets a spot on this list more out of respect than any thing he’s shown in practice or thus far in 2011. Nonetheless, he has won four of the past six Vegas races, and his 10th-place average finish is tops among all drivers with three or more starts.

Sleeper

Clint Bowyer
He doesn’t drive a Ford, nor does he drive for Hendrick Motorsports, but what Clint Bowyer does have going for him, is he knows the fast way around LVMS. This is based on the fact that he’s finished eighth and second the last two years. He’s likely not going to win tomorrow, but there’s no reason he can’t finish somewhere in the top-10 for the third straight year.

The Official Racing Geek Pick

My first inclination is to lean towards a driver who’s sporting a blue oval on their hood. After the speed the Ford powered cars had yesterday, it’s hard to think otherwise. But as we’ve often seen, the obvious pick isn’t always the right one. Just go back a week, where Carl Edwards was the overwhelming favorite to win in Phoenix. But contact with Kyle Busch resulted in Edwards cutting a tire, then hit the wall and saw his day end prematurely.

So let’s avoid the obvious, and go in a different direction.

(Pausing)

(Contemplating)

Ah, never mind. Give me Edwards to win tomorrow. He’s been fast all weekend and he’s primed to get his first victory of 2011.

 

 

If you would like to contact the author of this post, simply click here, and you can also follow The Racing Geek on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Filed Under: Contenders and Sleepers, Las Vegas, NASCAR, Preview

Subway Fresh Fit 500 Preview

02/28/2011 By Leave a Comment

What: Subway Fresh Fit 500(k)
Where: Phoenix International Raceway
(1-mile D-shaped oval)
Distance: 312 laps/312 miles
Green Flag: 3:14 PM (ET)
TV: Fox
Defending Winner: Ryan Newman

Storylines To Follow

Big Names Looking For a Rebound
Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin are just a few of the bigger names who experienced a rough day for one reason or another in the Daytona 500. With NASCAR’s new point system, which favors consistency and punishes finishes towards the back, another poor finish Sunday could easily put one of the above names in a hole that will be tough to get out of.

Can Trevor Bayne Shock The World…Again?
Since his win last Sunday, Trevor Mania has broken out throughout the United States. Name a news or talk show and it’s likely the 20-year-old has made an appearance on it at some point this week. Although that’s to be expected when you pull off the unexpected and become the youngest winner in Daytona 500 history.

Now, it’s back to reality for Trevor Bayne, as he looks to start the year by going two-for-two in the win department. While that task was made harder after he wrecked his primary car during Friday’s opening round of practice, we do have to remember he wasn’t supposed to win in Daytona either. The lesson here as always, anything is possible.

Can Carl Edwards His Roll?
The hottest driver in NASCAR is not a fresh-faced driver who burst onto the scene last week in grand style. No, it’s today’s polesitter, a veteran who’s made 230 Sprint Cup starts and has 18 victories to his name.

As you probably can deduce, that driver is Carl Edwards. Dating back to last year, he has two wins and a runner-up finish in his last starts, including a win here last November. With the aforementioned marquee drivers, many of whom are expected to contend for the title, trying to overcome a disappointing Daytona, Edwards has an opportunity to clearly establish himself as the early, early favorite to win the 2011 championship.

(And yes, we’re already talking championships and title favorites, just two races into the season. I’m sorry, but this is the world in which we live in, so please try and deal with it the best you can.)

Worth Noting

■This will be the last race at Phoenix on the current configuration. Following Sunday’s race, track officials will be putting down new asphalt, widening the frontstretch from 52 to 62 feet, pushing out the famous dogleg on the backstretch by 95 feet and tightening the turning radius from 800 to 500 feet, and adding up to 11 degrees of banking in the turns that will ensure the use of two racing grooves.

■If Trevor Bayne wins Sunday, he will become the fifth driver to backup his win in the Daytona 500 with a victory the following week. The others are Richard Petty (1973), Cale Yarborough (1977), Jeff Gordon (1997) and Matt Kenseth (2009).

■Two drivers, Alan Kulwicki and Bobby Hamilton, have picked up their first career Sprint Cup victories at Phoenix.

Phoenix International Raceway Track Records (Active)

Driver Wins: Jimmie Johnson (4)

Owner Wins: Hendrick Motorsports (8)

Manufacturer Wins: Chevrolet (14)

Average Finish: Jimmie Johnson (4.9)

Laps Led: Jimmie Johnson (868)

Top-5s: Mark Martin (12)

Top-10s: Mark Martin (19)

Contenders

1. Carl Edwards
As noted above, Carl Edwards rolls into Phoenix full of momentum. He also has the knowledge that the last time the series raced on the flat oval located in the desert, it was he who was celebrating in victory lane.

2. Ryan Newman
I would be remiss if my list of contenders didn’t include the driver who finished first in this race last year and second here last fall. After all, thanks to sound pit strategy and a good late-race restart, Ryan Newman was able to drive away with the victory.

3. Jimmie Johnson
He may have looked mortal last fall when he needed to stretch his fuel just to finish fifth, but ignore that, as the statistics point to Jimmie Johnson having a say in the outcome Sunday. In 15 starts at PIR, the five-time defending champ has been to victory lane four times, 10 top-fives, 13 top-10s and an average finish of 4.9.

Sleeper

Joey Logano
A tenth and a third in both events last year, along with this track having similar characteristics to New Hampshire, the site of Joey Logano’s lone Sprint Cup win, makes one think the Home Depot Toyota should be expected to finish solidly in the top-10 tomorrow.

The Official Racing Geek Pick

With everyone on different agendas throughout practice, it’s hard to gauge who’s going to be quick in racetrim on Sunday. The one constant was Kyle Busch, who posted the fifth-quickest speed in the first round of practice and was the fastest car on the track in Friday’s second session.

Let’s not forget, Phoenix has been a good track for Busch. Back in 2005 this was the site of his second career win, and last year in this race, he led 113 laps before getting shuffled back to eighth in the final laps. Not to mention, he won Friday night’s Truck Series race and led every single lap in yesterday’s Nationwide Series event.

Expect the winning to continue this afternoon, as Busch goes on to get the first of what will be many Sprint Cup victories in 2011.

If you would like to contact the author of this post, simply click here, and you can also follow The Racing Geek on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Filed Under: Contenders and Sleepers, NASCAR, Phoenix, Preview

Daytona 500 Preview

02/20/2011 By Leave a Comment

What: 53rd Daytona 500
Where: Daytona International Speedway (2.5-mile tri-oval)
Distance: 200 laps/500 miles
Green Flag: 1:00 PM (ET)
TV: Fox
Defending Winner: Jamie McMurray

Storylines To Follow

 Finding a Wingman
Having a drafting partner has always been a critical factor in having success at Daytona or Talladega. But this year, with the prevalence of two-cars working in tandem and with cars no longer running in large packs, having another driver to work is of the utmost importance.

All week, be it practice, the Shootout or the Duels, we’ve tended to see teammates work together, most notably the Richard Childress and Roush drivers. That’s likely not to change on raceday, though circumstances may necessitate teams calling an audible or two during the race.

“You know, it’s an advantage to have a teammate, there’s no question about it,” said Jeff Burton following his win Thursday in the second Gatorade Duel. “Everybody can see that. The difficult part is getting with a teammate.

“It doesn’t always work out. You can have everything lined up and get a restart. Now you’re side by side instead of front to back. You can try to get in front of each other, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to work out, like [what] happened to Kevin and I on Saturday night.

“It’s important. Everybody is going to try really hard to be with a teammate, but there’s times it’s not going to work out. You’re going to have to go and make it work with someone that is willing to work with you as hard as a guy that is your teammate.”

Whether it’s a pair of guys who have their paychecks signed by the same person, or two drivers who haven’t always seen eye-to-eye, it doesn’t matter. Because without a partner, any partner, a driver has a less than a zero-percent chance of winning on Sunday.

Keeping Those Engines Cool
After finding a wingman, the next step to success on Sunday is keeping the engine cool, and making sure it doesn’t overheat and/or let go prematurely. With the style of racing we’ve seen, with two cars running nose-to-tail for the duration of the race, this is going to be no easy task.

“Managing your car is going to be very important because we’ve already seen a lot of engine problems,” said Kevin Harvick, one of the favorites tomorrow. “Our engine guys are no different than anybody else. The gun is loaded and sitting on the counter and you just don’t want them to pick it up because they’re terrified of everything that’s going on.”

This explains why we’ve seen drivers continually swap positions on the track throughout practice and various races. The guy running behind his partner has to be given the opportunity to move in front so that his engine has chance to cool.

However, there is one group of cars who many in the garage believe have an advantage over everyone else.

“The Roush cars definitely have a cooling system that’s better than everybody else’s,” explained Harvick. “They’ve got something figured out there that they’ve done a good job with. “

Pit Stops, Strategy & Tire Wear
In the past despite its raw speed, Daytona has always been a track where handling mattered the most. It didn’t matter how fast you ran, if you had a car that handled like a shopping cart with a bum wheel, it was going to be tough to post a good finish.

With the 2.5-mile track being repaved since the last time the series raced here and the many bumps which used to dot the track now removed, handling is no longer the issue it once was.

As such, it’s no longer a given that a team will put fresh tires on their car whenever they pit. In fact, during Thursday’s Duels, the leaders in both races pitted without changing tires. Carl Edwards, when he met with the media today, said tire wear is not a concern to him or anyone on his team.

It will be interesting to watch what happens as more rubber is laid on the track, particularly late in the race. Especially if the weather tomorrow is sunny and hot like predicted. Then again, how often are weathermen actually right?

Surprise, Surprise
The list of surprise winners of the Daytona 500 is an extensive one, and includes names like Derrike Cope, Pete Hamilton, Dale Jarrett, Michael Waltrip, Tiny Lund and Ward Burton. Is there an unexpected victor lurking out there? And if so, who? Paul Menard? Regan Smith? AJ Allmendinger?

Worth Noting

▪Three drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Joey Logano and David Ragan, will be starting the 500 in backup cars. Earnhardt damaged his primary car in practice Wednesday, while Logano and Ragan each crashed in Thursday’s second Duel race.

▪This will be Bill Elliott’s 29th Daytona 500 start. On the other end of the spectrum are Brian Keselowski, Steve Wallace, Andy Lally and Trevor Bayne, all of whom will be making their first start in the 500.

▪Jamie McMurray is attempting to become the first driver since Sterling Marlin (1994-95) to win back-to-back in the 500.

▪The 53rd running of the Daytona 500 will feature nine former 500 winners – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2004 champion), Jeff Gordon (1997, ’99, ’05), Kevin Harvick (2007), Michael Waltrip (2001, ’03), Matt Kenseth (2009), Jamie McMurray (2010), Ryan Newman (2008), Jimmie Johnson (2006) and Bill Elliott (1985, ’87).

Daytona International Speedway Track Records (Active)

Driver Wins: Jeff Gordon (6)

Owner Wins: Wood Brothers (14)

Manufacturer Wins: Chevrolet (40)

Average Finish: Clint Bowyer (12.8)

Laps Led: Tony Stewart (640)

Top-5s: Bill Elliott (15)

Top-10s: Terry Labonte (26)

Contenders

1. Kurt Busch
After claiming wins in the Budweiser Shootout and in his Duel qualifying race, it’s only appropriate Kurt Busch is No.1 on my list of contenders. When asked about his car post-race Thursday, the 2004 Sprint Cup champion has this to say, “It’s bright, it’s yellow, and it’s fast.” Either Busch really likes his car or he was describing Big Bird. You make the call.

2. Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick may not have won a race during Speedweeks like the other two guys on this list, but he certainly has made his presence felt throughout Speedweeks. Last Saturday, the 2007 winner of the Daytona 500 was a fixture up front before issues with a rev limiter caused him to drop back late. While Thursday in his Duel race, Harvick led a race-high 20 laps and finished a strong third.

Of course, there’s the fact that the Richard Childress Racing driver is widely regarded as one of the best restrictor-plate racers in the garage. A fact that’s backed up by Harvick’s wins last year at Daytona and Talladega, as well as a pair of Shootout victories he has next to his name.

3. Jeff Burton
Listening to Jeff Burton talk, it’s evident how important a victory in the 500 is to him. It’s the one race he wants to win more than any other. It’s also evident that tomorrow offers him the best chance to get that elusive victory.

Since unloading here last week, no driver has been as consistently quick as the driver of the No. 31 CAT Chevrolet. The 32 laps he led in the Shootout were 14 more than anyone else, and he led the most laps again in his qualifying race, which he went on to win.

Sleeper

Ragan Smith
This is not only a sleeper, it’s a deep sleeper. But stranger things have happened at Daytona and we’ve certainly seen a long shot winner or two in the 52 previous running’s of the 500.

What Regan Smith has going for him, is what he has underneath his hood – a engine from Earnhardt Childress Racing, which supplied engines to the winners of every restrictor-plate race in 2010. As Smith demonstrated Thursday with his runner-up finish in the first Duel qualifying race, he’s more than capable of running up front and holding his own for 500 miles.

On Sunday, a top-10 finish is a very realistic goal for this team.

The Official Racing Geek Pick

This year’s Daytona 500 is going to be decided by who can find someone they work well with in the closing laps. No different than what we saw in the Budweiser Shootout and the Gatorade Duels.

Throughout the week, no team has exhibited better teamwork than the cars out of the Richard Childress stable. Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick worked extremely well together in the Shootout and Burton and Bowyer were equally as good in their Duel race. There’s no reason to think this is going to change in the 500.

When you add in the fact Childress cars won three of four plate races in 2010, it’s evident who has the superior engine and aero package at Daytona.

Of the four RCR drivers, there’s one who stands taller than all the others. He’s the only one of the four to have won the 500, has three plate victories on his resume, and has consistently shown an innate ability to avoid the “Big One.”

That driver is 2007 Daytona 500 champion Kevin Harvick, and he’s my pick to win tomorrow.

 

If you would like to contact the author of this post, simply click here, and you can also follow The Racing Geek on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Filed Under: Contenders and Sleepers, Daytona, NASCAR, Preview

Budweiser Shootout Preview

02/13/2011 By Leave a Comment

What: Budweiser Shootout
Where: Daytona International Speedway
(2.5-mile tri-oval)
Distance: 75 laps/187.5 miles broken into two-segments.
• First segment is 25 laps which will be followed by a 10-minute break where teams can change tires, add fuel and make normal chassis adjustments that they would during a normal pit stop.
• The second segment will be 50 laps and yellow-flag laps will be counted.
When: February 12, 2011
Green Flag: 8:17 PM (ET)
TV: Fox
Defending Winner: Kevin Harvick

Storylines To Follow

Working Out the Kinks
Baseball has spring training, the NFL has a four-game preseason and NASCAR has the Budweiser Shootout. This is an invitational event, which allows teams to see how they perform in race conditions; especially this year with a new fueling system having eliminated a crew member from going over the wall and Daytona being repaved for the first time in 30-plus years. Better to have a mistake tonight when points aren’t on the line rather than a week from Sunday in the 500.

A New Surface, Two-Car Breakaways & Overheating
As a result of the new asphalt that was laid down over the offseason, speeds at Daytona have picked up noticeably. 10 drivers in practice last night topped 200 mph, but more than anything, it was how those speeds were reached. It wasn’t the normal sight of a group of four or five cars running in a tight pack around the 2.5-mile superspeedway. Instead, it was two cars hooking up with one another and forming a two-car train which allowed them to breakaway from the pack.

If you’re going to win tonight, it’s going to come down to who can find a drafting partner that can push them to the front.

There is a caveat, however. Running with your nose tucked underneath someone’s rear bumper is a quick way to overheat your engine. And because speeds were so fast yesterday, and because they didn’t want to reissue a smaller restrictor-plate, NASCAR has eliminated a cooling mechanism to the engine in an effort to prevent two-car breakaways and thus bring down the speeds a bit.

Is a Chevy Romp in the Works?
In Shootout practice yesterday and in both sessions of Daytona 500 practice today, Chevy drivers have been atop the speed charts. Having won all four plate races last year, as well as the Shootout, there’s no question that the Bowtie Brigade is the manufacturer to beat tonight under the lights.

A Junior Revival?
It’s been a trying couple years for Dale Earnhardt Jr. But thus far, things appear to be on an upswing for NASCAR’s favorite son. His Chevy was fast yesterday in practice and last night, he randomly drew the pole for the Shootout. Not to mention, this just so happens to be a track where Junior is always among the frontrunners.

Harvick Seeking a Three-peat
Four drivers, Neil Bonnett, Ken Schrader, Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick, have won the Budweiser Shootout in back-to-back years. No driver has ever won three in a row. That could change tonight, as Harvick, who’s won the last two Shootouts, has the opportunity to become the first to win three straight. With points-wins last year at Talladega and Daytona, the odds are favorable that the RCR driver makes some history tonight.

Budweiser Shootout By The Numbers

.08 – Margin of victory in seconds by Dale Earnhardt over Sterling Marlin in 1995, the closest margin in Budweiser Shootout history

1 – Laps led by Rusty Wallace (1998), Neil Bonnett (1983-84), Dale Earnhardt (1980), Dale Jarrett
(2000 and 2004) and Kevin Harvick (2009) in the Budweiser Shootouts they won

5 – Drivers who have won the event in their first appearance (Buddy Baker, 1979; Dale Earnhardt, 1980; Jeff Gordon, 1994; Dale Jarrett, 1996; Denny Hamlin, 2006)

11 – Number of starts before winning, most since race began in 1979 (Rusty Wallace and Mark Martin)

14 – Number of different leaders in the 2009 event, most since race began in 1979

23 – Number of lead changes in the 2009 event, highest number since race began in 1979

27 – Kevin Harvick’s starting position in 2009, the lowest by a race winner in the event’s history

44 – Laps led by Greg Biffle in 2005, the most by a driver who did not win the event

47 – Laps led by Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2008, the most in a single Budweiser Shootout

Contenders

1. Kevin Harvick
An easy pick as the No. 1 contender, when you factor in he’s driving for the best restrictor-plate team in the garage, won three plates last year and his team won four overall, and he’s won the last two Shootout’s. In the business, we call this a no-brainer.

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
No matter what troubles he may have running well elsewhere, you can always count on Dale Earnhardt Jr. to be strong at Daytona. And all indications so far point towards him being considered the co-favorite tonight.

3. Kyle Busch
In the cool conditions last night, much like we’ll see this evening, Joey Logano and Kyle were first and second in final practice. If we are to see someone not driving a Chevy breakthrough and go to victory lane, why not Busch? After all, with victories at Daytona and Talladega on his résumé, it’s obvious he knows a thing or two about working the draft to his advantage.

Sleeper

Clint Bowyer
This is the kind of race that suits Clint Bowyer perfectly. The Shootout’s format is conducive for a wide-open race, that’s going to require a driver to take some chances, as well as have a fast teammate to work with. Well, Bowyer’s RCR stablemate is Kevin Harvick and as evident by his victory last fall at Talladega, Bowyer knows how to put himself in the best position to capitalize late.

As he said Thursday at NASCAR’s Media Day, the reason he doesn’t get the attention he maybe deserves, is because he doesn’t win often enough. A victory tonight could very well change that.

The Official Racing Geek Pick

From being quick in practice, to drawing the pole position, this has the feel of a Dale Earnhardt Jr. night. But that just seems too obvious; as does picking Kevin Harvick and anyone with a bowtie on their hood. Instead, I’ll take Kyle Busch, who while not having the fastest car, will find a way to spoil Chevy’s victory lane bash.

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Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images

Filed Under: Contenders and Sleepers, Daytona, NASCAR, Preview
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