What I like about this time of the year more than anything else, is not the long offseason coming to a close. To me, what stands out is the optimism shared by everyone in the garage.
Throughout the offseason and into Speedweeks, drivers and teams alike, think this is going to be their year. The general feeling being, “Whatever issues we dealt with last season are behind us and now is our time.”
Obviously this isn’t the case, and it won’t be too long before that sense of hope and good feeling will soon erode into the reality that there are 42 losers every week and only one winner.
Teams, who started the year out on a shoestring budget with the grandeur thought of doing the next-to-impossible, will more than likely realize that they will not achieve their dream, and will soon cease to exist altogether due to a lack of funds.
Drivers who thought this was the year they were finally going to win that elusive championship, will somewhere along the way have their title dreams dashed by bad luck, miscommunication, faulty equipment, an error in judgment, or a combination of all of the above.
For now though, let’s bask in the glory of what surely will be a memorable Daytona 500 and what is setting up to be a fantastic season. Of which where there is no clear-cut favorite to win either.
However, before we turn our attention to Sunday’s spectacle and the official start to the 2012 season, let’s first shine the spotlight on the season as a whole, and sort through who I think is going to do what.
Who is the 2012 Sprint Cup champion?
For the last six seasons, I’ve always been an ardent believer that until someone knocked Jimmie Johnson off the championship pedestal, he was unquestionably the favorite entering the season. Now for the first time since the beginning of the 2006 season, we enter a year without Johnson being referred to as the “defending champ.” And while it’s very easy to say the man who won five consecutive titles will return to his winning ways in ‘12, I don’t think that’s the case.
In what I think will be a wide-open title race, I strongly believe when the checkered flag waves at Homestead to closeout the 2012 season, it will be the man who came oh so close a year ago to winning it all, finally seizing the brass ring.
After several near-misses, and with the speed, smarts and the confidence needed to win, not to mention a great team instep with him, everything is lining up for Carl Edwards to win his first Sprint Cup championship.
While I think there is still something to be said about the “Season-After Affect” that has recently plagued the guy who finished second in points the year before, Edwards will prove to be immune from such a disease.
Your 2012 Chase for the Sprint Cup participants will be?
Take out a pen and write down in no particular order the names of Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon. These eight drivers will one way or another find themselves in the Chase, either via the points they accumulate during the regular season or by snagging one of the two available wildcard spots.
If you’re wondering about Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick, neither are locks in my mind. I think both will struggle to match their performance of a year ago, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if one or both missed the Chase cutoff.
After that, things get a bit more fluid.
Certainly in the mix are Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, AJ Allmendinger and Ryan Newman, and it’s safe to say if everything breaks right, both Michael Waltrip Racing drivers, Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr., could find themselves competing for a Chase berth.
I also anticipate Jeff Burton rebounding from a down year and returning to the Chase. Using his trademark consistency, look for the Richard Childress Racing driver to employ a steady diet of top-15 finishes to succeed in making his second Chase in three seasons.
Furthermore, don’t be surprised if Marcos Ambrose ends up in the Chase based on a win at one of the two road courses. He’s quietly evolved into a well-rounded driver, and if he won on an oval this year it would surprise no one.
With a gun to my head my 12 Chase drivers are the aforementioned seven of Edwards, Johnson, Stewart, Hamlin, Kahne, Kenseth, Busch and Gordon, along with Harvick, Biffle, Burton and, what the hell, Marcos Ambrose.
Your biggest surprise of 2012, will be?
I tipped my hand my above by picking him to make the Chase, but nonetheless, I have a strong feeling about Marcos Ambrose in 2012.
First and foremost, because of his tremendous ability on the road courses of Infineon and Watkins Glen, Ambrose will be a serious threat to win both. If he can complete the road course sweep, all the Aussie would have to do to qualify for his first Chase is maintain a spot somewhere in the top-20 in points. Not an unrealistic possibility considering in three full seasons, Ambrose has twice finished in the top-20, including a 19th-place finish last year in the final standings.
Also, keep in mind Ambrose has dramatically improved on tracks where he’s only required to turn left. With cars and engines supplied by Roush Fenway Racing, there’s no doubting his Ford Fusion should be good enough to contend most weeks on the ovals.
Entering in his second year with Richard Petty Motorsports, I believe Ambrose is ready to take the next step in his NASCAR career.
How will Danica Patrick do in her first full season in NASCAR?
I admit, I had serious doubts about Danica Patrick and how she would do racing full-bodied racecars.
While it took some time, you can’t deny she has slowly figured how to race a stock car and what is required of her if she wants to be known for more than just what she does off the track and the flashy Super Bowl commercials she stars in.
But after some noticeable growing pains, the only female to win an IndyCar race will have what I feel everyone will consider a successful first full season in NASCAR.
Now, that doesn’t mean she’s going to win a Nationwide Series race while running the full schedule, or score top-10 finish in one of the 10 Sprint Cup races she’s going to compete in.
Instead, I do expect her to come close on a couple of occasions to winning a Nationwide race, and I do expect her to finish the year somewhere in the top-10 in points.
Although, I don’t see her making an immediate impact in Cup, I also don’t think she is going to embarrass herself either.
Helping matters greatly is the strong support cast she has around her consisting of Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Nationwide Series crew chief Tony Eury Jr., and the new competition director of Stewart-Haas Racing, Greg Zipadelli, among others.
At the very least, now that she is a fulltime NASCAR driver, by the end of the year – one way or another – we will have a fairly good idea of where Danica stacks up talent-wise to those she races against on a weekly basis.
Will this be the year, finally, that Dale Earnhardt Jr. gets back to the winner’s circle?
The short answer is yes. Although, I feel like I say that every season and all Earnhardt continues to do is fall short.
Entering his second season working with crew chief Steve Letarte, and after being painstakingly close several times last year, NASCAR’s favorite son should finally unlock the door to Victory Lane.
And don’t be at all surprised if it happens Sunday, in the Daytona 500.
With the rule changes on restrictor-plate tracks ushering in the return on pack racing, Earnhardt has looked like his old self throughout Speedweeks. He’s been a constant up front, and with a little luck he could have easily won either the Budweiser Shootout or his Gatorade Duel qualifying race.
If not the 500, look for Earnhardt to snap that three-plus year winless streak at Texas, Charlotte, Talladega or the return trip to Daytona on Fourth of July weekend.
After a season in which five drivers scored their first win, who will be the next first time Sprint Cup winner?
How slim are the pickings of drivers who might win for the first time? Using the field for last year’s season finale at Homestead as our guide, only 11 of the 43 starters have never tasted success at the Sprint Cup level. Among the names in questions are such luminaries as T.J. Bell, Michael McDowell, David Gilliland, David Stremme, J.J. Yeley and Dave Blaney.
Do you think any of those above guys are going to win this year? You and I both know the answer to that question.
There is only driver who has yet to win, drives for a team capable of winning, and is ready to do so. That of course is AJ Allmendinger.
In his first season as Kurt Busch’s replacement at Penske Racing, Allmendinger should have fast Dodge Chargers underneath him on an almost weekly basis. With the equipment and team provided to him, ‘Dinger should have ample opportunity to get his first NASCAR victory of any kind; now he just as to go out and do it.
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As has become the norm, here is my annual exercise in futility; predicting which driver is going to win what races.
2/26 Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway
Tony Stewart
3/4 Subway Fresh Fit 500
Phoenix International Raceway
Carl Edwards
3/11 Kobalt Tools 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Matt Kenseth
3/18 Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway
Kyle Busch
3/25 Auto Club 400
Auto Club Speedway
Jimmie Johnson
4/1 Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500
Martinsville Speedway
Denny Hamlin
4/14 Samsung Mobile 500
Texas Motor Speedway
Carl Edwards
4/22 Kansas Speedway 400
Kansas Speedway
Greg Biffle
4/28 Crown Royal 400
Richmond International Raceway
Kyle Busch
5/6 Aaron’s 499
Talladega Superspeedway
Kevin Harvick
5/12 Showtime Southern 500
Darlington Raceway
Kyle Busch
5/19 Sprint All-Star Race *Non-points*
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Jimmie Johnson
5/27 Coca-Cola 600
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Kasey Kahne
6/3 Dover 400
Dover International Speedway
AJ Allmendinger
6/10 Pocono 400
Pocono Raceway
Greg Biffle
6/17 Michigan 400
Michigan International Speedway
Carl Edwards
6/24 Toyota/Save Mart 350
Infineon Raceway
Kyle Busch
6/30 Quaker State 400
Kentucky Speedway
Jamie McMurray
7/7 Coke Zero 400 Powered By Coca-Cola
Daytona International Speedway
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
7/15 Lenox Industrial Tools 301
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Tony Stewart
7/29 Brickyard 400
Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Jeff Gordon
8/5 Pennsylvania 400
Pocono Raceway
Greg Biffle
8/12 Sprint Cup Series at The Glen
Watkins Glen
Marcos Ambrose
8/19 Pure Michigan 400
Michigan International Speedway
Brad Keselowski
8/25 Irwin Tools Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway
Kyle Busch
9/2 Annual Advocare 500
Atlanta Motor Speedway
Kasey Kahne
9/8 Wonderful Pistachios 400
Richmond International Raceway
Denny Hamlin
9/16 Geico 400
Chicagoland Speedway
Jimmie Johnson
9/23 Sylvania 300
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Jimmie Johnson
9/30 AAA 400
Dover International Speedway
Martin Truex Jr.
10/7 Good Sam Club 500
Talladega Superspeedway
Jeff Gordon
10/13 Bank of America 500
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Kasey Kahne
10/21 Hollywood Casino 400
Kansas Speedway
Carl Edwards
10/28 TUMS Fast Relief 500
Martinsville Speedway
Jimmie Johnson
11/4 AAA Texas 500
Texas Motor Speedway
Denny Hamlin
11/13 Phoenix 500
Phoenix International Raceway
Tony Stewart
11/18 Ford 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway
Matt Kenseth
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